by John Luke Tyner | Aug 11, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
U.S. Headline CPI was flat from June to July, slowing to 8.5% YoY. The core CPI (ex food & energy) rose +0.3%, keeping the YoY number at 5.9%. Headline CPI had the lowest monthly overall reading since May 2020 (0.0%). The unchanged reading was driven by an...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 4, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Sizable Hike The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 20, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate of 2.5%. We believe that more hikes will be needed to tame inflation, which helps explain why...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 7, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Fed Update Chairman Powell was before Congress this week and admitted several things: 1) rate hikes will not likely bring down cost of gas; 2) rate hikes will not likely bring down the cost of food (wheat, etc); and 3) a soft landing is unlikely, and growth is coming...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
Peak Inflation… Think Again! Source: Bianco Research. As of 6/10/22 CPI rose 1.0% MoM and 8.6% YoY (a new high) in May. The core CPI again surged 0.6% MoM and 6.0% YoY. Inflation looks to be broadening… The Bones of the Report May’s report...
