by John Luke Tyner | May 26, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Municipal bonds have been thrown out with the bathwater since the beginning of the year as the Fed gets serious about taming inflation and in turn the market pushing interest rates higher. The decline in price (and increase in yield) could make the current landscape...
by John Luke Tyner | May 20, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
* Fed Expected to Hike 50bps at Next Two Meetings. As you can see below, the odds on both are at 100%. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed has been put into defensive mode (i.e., forcefully tightening policy) even into a growth slowdown. Source: Bianco...
by John Luke Tyner | May 6, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
May 5th, 2022 – Bond Market Week Over Week Update * Fed Hikes 50bps and Starts QT, albeit more Slowly than Expected. The Fed hiked rates 50 bps (instead of 75) and basically ruled out 75 bps increases going forward. In our opinion, the Fed eased policy...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 29, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
Decomposing Bond Yields Let’s first think about the components of a bond’s yield. At the simplest level, Treasury yields are simply the average expected Fed funds rate over the maturity plus a term premium. A good portion of the recent move in rates has been a direct...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 25, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
This bond bear market has taken down Munis hard. Yields on Munis (measured by MUB) are around 2.45%, which is ~3.5% tax-free on a 4.25yr duration. Higher Yield Muni funds are around 4% yields (5.7% TEY). Market Recap Year to date, 10yr AAA Munis have...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 22, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
* Why Are Yields Rising: Rising yields are a consequence of falling bond prices, which occurs when investors sell bonds. This is an obvious point, but it’s important to realize that yields aren’t rising by themselves—they are only rising because investors are...
