by John Luke Tyner | Sep 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Hot Inflation Report CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 2, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
The balance sheets of global central banks have grown drastically in the last 15 years. The United States balance sheet alone grew from ~$4 trillion to ~$9 trillion over the pace of 2 years during the pandemic. The surge in liquidity has had a drastic effect on...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 31, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Stocks Fall on the “No Pivot” Powell Speech SPX down over -5% in the past 3 days since Jackson Hole. Additional Fedspeak: BARKIN: JOB MARKET STILL VERY TIGHT, DEMAND IS HEALTHY BARKIN: WON’T PREJUDGE SIZE OF NEXT RATE HIKE, DEPENDS ON DATA BOSTIC: COULD...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 26, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Powell focused on inflation and the willingness to tolerate “some pain to households and businesses” to bring inflationary pressures down. He also says that it will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy for some time. This is Fedspeak for: 1)...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place on Friday and will open with a speech by Chair Powell at 10am EST. We expect Powell to reiterate that the FOMC remains committed to bringing inflation down and that upcoming policy decisions will...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 17, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...
