{"id":238435,"date":"2025-06-06T07:17:53","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T11:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=238435"},"modified":"2025-06-05T20:18:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T00:18:04","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-june-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-june-6\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, June 6"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rare timing setups and market breadth to the economy, earnings, and US\/foreign market exposures. Enjoy!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tariff Tantrum vs. Reality Check<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> Since Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs on April 2, soft data (like surveys) has collapsed, while hard data (like jobs and spending) hasn\u2019t budged. It\u2019s a reminder that sentiment often reacts faster than the economy actually does\u2014if it reacts at all.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Citigroup as of 05.28.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Divergences Usually Converge<\/strong><\/h5>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> While the split between what people feel and what they do is getting louder, they eventually converge. Job growth, income, and GDP are all holding up, with Q2 estimates now pushing higher. Right now, that story still looks solid, even if the vibes don’t match. Which will win?<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 03.31.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S&P 500 Goes Full Rocket Mode<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Beckham: <\/strong>A 20 percent move in just 28 days? That\u2019s rare air for the S&P 500. The last three times this happened, the market was higher a year later. Short-term fireworks, long-term signal?<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 05.28.2025<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

May Meant Business<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Dave:<\/strong> The S&P 500 just had its best month since the fall of last year (and second largest month since last May). May continues to show up when bulls need a lift.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Mike Zaccardi as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

May Strength \u201cMay\u201d Mean Strength<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Arch:<\/strong> May posted a 5%+ gain for the S&P 500. Why does that matter? Because in every previous case where May gained more than 5%, the market was up over the next 12 months.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Carson as of 05.28.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The World Takes a Strong Lead at the (Almost) Halfway Point<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> Despite the bounce in May, the U.S. market is trailing international markets by the widest margin year-to-date since 1993.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bloomberg as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Is it Yields Keeping the US Down?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Brad: <\/strong>There\u2019s no magic interest rate that kills equity returns. Since 1940, S&P 500 returns have shown no consistent pattern based on nominal yields.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Shiller, Goldman as of 12.31.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Big Tech\u2019s Valuation Diet<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Arch:<\/strong> A portion of the relative lag in the U.S. is due to the MAG-5 seeing their P\/E ratios drop as earnings caught up to price. These names are still priced at a premium to the broader market, but the decline has been real.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The MAG-7 Premium\u2026 It\u2019s All Relative<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Brad:<\/strong> Yet the MAG-7 premium in relative terms compared to the rest of the S&P 500 has dropped to 43 percent, the lowest since 2017. Still higher, but justified?<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Small Caps, Large Red Flags<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Investors can own small caps at a discount, but in many areas that discount may be justified. While that\u2019s not unusual during speculative episodes, the current level suggests that broad small-cap exposure is still littered with unprofitable firms. An allocation to higher quality small-caps may be the antidote.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Is the Fed Looking Yet?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

John Luke: <\/strong>PCE inflation is sitting at 2.1 percent, right where the Fed wants it. Meanwhile, real yields are at decade highs. If the Fed is really data dependent, the case for a rate cut is getting stronger.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bloomberg as of 05.31.2025<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Expensive Doesn\u2019t Always Equal Worse<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Brian:<\/strong> Yes, homes used to be cheaper. They were also way smaller (and used to lack plumbing). In 1950, most homes were well under 1,500 square feet, while today, less than 25% are under 1500 square feet. Today, buyers want offices, islands, and three bathrooms. Adjust your nostalgia accordingly.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: 24\/7 Wall Street, Census, Aptus as of 12.31.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Takeaways<\/strong><\/h5>\n
    \n
  • \n
      \n
    • Market reactions and economic reality often part ways<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • Seasonality and momentum are alive and well<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          \n
        • Small caps still need a quality filter<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
            \n
          • Big tech is still big, but not as bubbly<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
              \n
            • Inflation is cooling, but not investor excitement<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

              Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n

               <\/p>\n

              Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

              Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

              This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

              Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2506-30. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rare timing setups and market breadth to the economy, earnings, and US\/foreign market exposures. Enjoy!   Tariff Tantrum vs. Reality Check Joseph: Since Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs on April 2, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[132,185,644,316,276],"class_list":["post-238435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-earnings","tag-housing","tag-mag-7","tag-rates","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, June 6 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-june-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, June 6 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. 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