{"id":237594,"date":"2025-01-17T13:32:26","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T18:32:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=237594"},"modified":"2025-01-17T15:47:32","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T20:47:32","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-january-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-january-17\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, January 17"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers to government spending and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. Enjoy!<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> The rate of inflation may not be falling, but stable in the 3% range seems to be acceptable to stocks, based on the post-CPI rally<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237595 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Inflation-Bberg-01.15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"948\" height=\"558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Inflation-Bberg-01.15.png 948w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Inflation-Bberg-01.15-480x283.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 948px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> but the path for 10 year Treasuries still stands out from past episodes<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237596 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Rates-vs.-History-Goldman-01.15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1650\" height=\"1050\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Rates-vs.-History-Goldman-01.15.png 1650w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Rates-vs.-History-Goldman-01.15-1280x815.png 1280w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Rates-vs.-History-Goldman-01.15-980x624.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Rates-vs.-History-Goldman-01.15-480x305.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1650px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Goldman Sachs as of 01.15.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Beckham:<\/strong> Companies aren\u2019t really cutting jobs, they\u2019re just not hiring as aggressively as they did coming out of COVID<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237597 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Hiring-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Hiring-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10.png 800w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Hiring-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10-480x270.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 800px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Tker as of 01.10.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Beckham:<\/strong> and workers aren\u2019t leaving their current jobs for better opportunities like they did in that period<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237598 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Quits-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Quits-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10.png 800w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Quits-Rate-Falling-TKer-01.10-480x270.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 800px, 100vw\" \/>Source: TKer as of 01.10.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JD:<\/strong> The federal government continues to operate at a significant deficit, setting a high hurdle rate for future purchasing power<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237599 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Deficit-of-GDP-NewEdge-01.13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1177\" height=\"748\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Deficit-of-GDP-NewEdge-01.13.png 1177w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Deficit-of-GDP-NewEdge-01.13-980x623.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Deficit-of-GDP-NewEdge-01.13-480x305.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1177px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of December 2024<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> thankfully, consumers are in much better shape with their collective finances<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237600 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Household-Debt-to-Assets-Apollo-01.13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1366\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Household-Debt-to-Assets-Apollo-01.13.jpg 1366w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Household-Debt-to-Assets-Apollo-01.13-1280x720.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Household-Debt-to-Assets-Apollo-01.13-980x551.jpg 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Household-Debt-to-Assets-Apollo-01.13-480x270.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1366px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Apollo as of 01.13.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brian:<\/strong> that said, for those not already owning homes it\u2019s a tough market to enter<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237601 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Mortgage-Payments-@M_McDonough-01.10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1010\" height=\"635\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Mortgage-Payments-@M_McDonough-01.10.png 1010w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Mortgage-Payments-@M_McDonough-01.10-980x616.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Mortgage-Payments-@M_McDonough-01.10-480x302.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1010px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brett:<\/strong> leaving homebuilders less likely to build without clear signs from buyers<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237602 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Housing-Troubles-Sherwood-December-2024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Housing-Troubles-Sherwood-December-2024.png 780w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Housing-Troubles-Sherwood-December-2024-480x400.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 780px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of December 2024<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Valuations outside of megacap tech remain much closer to historic norms<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237603 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Large-vs.-Smaller-Valuations-Strategas-01.10-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Large-vs.-Smaller-Valuations-Strategas-01.10-Dave.png 778w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Large-vs.-Smaller-Valuations-Strategas-01.10-Dave-480x458.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 778px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> and maybe the catalyst will arrive this year as the business gap reverts<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237604 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-Earnings-Growth-by-Group-NewEdge-01.13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"486\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-Earnings-Growth-by-Group-NewEdge-01.13.png 871w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-Earnings-Growth-by-Group-NewEdge-01.13-480x268.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 871px, 100vw\" \/>Source: NewEdge as of 01.13.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Arch:<\/strong> There are clear justifications for U.S. equity outperformance vs. most of the world<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237605 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Productivity-vs.-Others.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1138\" height=\"696\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Productivity-vs.-Others-980x600.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Productivity-vs.-Others-480x294.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1138px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>John Luke:<\/em><\/strong> <em>but it\u2019s important to note that owning US stocks doesn\u2019t mean isolation from good or bad conditions around the globe<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237606 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Overseas-Revs-Apollo-01.12.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1150\" height=\"646\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Overseas-Revs-Apollo-01.12-980x551.jpg 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/US-Overseas-Revs-Apollo-01.12-480x270.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1150px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Apollo as of December 2024<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brian:<\/strong> When it comes to consumer psychology, politics plays a heavy role in the way people feel about the economy<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237607 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Politics-and-Economy-@M_McDonough-01.08.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1178\" height=\"992\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Politics-and-Economy-@M_McDonough-01.08.png 1178w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Politics-and-Economy-@M_McDonough-01.08-980x825.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Politics-and-Economy-@M_McDonough-01.08-480x404.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1178px, 100vw\" \/>Source: @M_McDonough as of 01.10.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> and speaking of sentiment, it didn\u2019t take much of a selloff to create a fresh wall of worry for stocks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237608 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Bears-Spiked-Daily-Chartbook-01.16.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1093\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Bears-Spiked-Daily-Chartbook-01.16.jpg 1093w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Bears-Spiked-Daily-Chartbook-01.16-980x1076.jpg 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Bears-Spiked-Daily-Chartbook-01.16-480x527.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1093px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of 01.16.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> 2024 delivered some hefty gains to shareholders of megacap tech stocks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237609 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Market-Cap-Changes-2024-Macrobond-01.17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1125\" height=\"682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Market-Cap-Changes-2024-Macrobond-01.17.png 1125w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Market-Cap-Changes-2024-Macrobond-01.17-980x594.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Market-Cap-Changes-2024-Macrobond-01.17-480x291.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1125px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Earnings season kicked off with the banks, we\u2019ll see more activity this week and then big tech the following week<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-237610 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Earnings-Ahead-Wall-Street-Horizon-01.17.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1110\" height=\"809\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Earnings-Ahead-Wall-Street-Horizon-01.17-980x715.jpg 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Earnings-Ahead-Wall-Street-Horizon-01.17-480x350.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1110px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of 01.17.2025<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This set of charts paints an evolving picture of where we\u2019ve been and where we might go. As always, we\u2019ll continue monitoring and interpreting the evidence to help navigate what\u2019s ahead.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2501-26. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers to government spending and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. Enjoy! \u00a0 Joseph: The rate of inflation may not be falling, but stable in the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[132,179,330,316],"class_list":["post-237594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-earnings","tag-markets","tag-mortgage","tag-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, January 17 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-january-17\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, January 17 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers to government spending and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. 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