{"id":237004,"date":"2024-10-04T13:30:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T17:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=237004"},"modified":"2024-10-04T16:08:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T20:08:51","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-october-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-october-4\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, October 4"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Between the Fed Chair and the jobs report, the market\u2019s expectations of another 50 bps cut have gone from a tossup to \u201cnot happening\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: CME FedWatch Tool<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

JD:<\/strong> but the global trend of central bank easing is well underway<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.27.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> The jobs report was another push away from summer recession fears<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
\nData as of 10.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> with the consumer a key part of avoiding a real economic downturn<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and supported by a persistently high level of saving<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2024<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Arch:<\/strong> Housing is a huge piece of most consumer balance sheets, especially as you go down the wealth scale<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> and they’re benefitting from their ability to refinance mortgages in the 2020-2021 low rate window<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> which is a prime reason why it would seemingly take a further drop in mortgage rates to generate new mortgage activity<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> We\u2019re heading into a seasonally strong period for stocks<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and they\u2019ve historically responded well to rate-cutting cycles that have avoided recessions<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Q3 earnings estimates have retreated in recent weeks as investors began worrying about the economy<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 10.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> leading to a flattish set of comparisons in Q3 relative to Q2<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 10.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> to an extent, this matches the history of earnings tracking along with interest rate cycles<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Societe Generale as of Sept 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> but like homeowners, large US companies took advantage of historically low rates to at least reduce the interest expense line item<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> Good reminder that investor mood changes often but growth is the consistent driver of what markets can ultimately deliver<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> and a reminder that the election winner has little impact on the long-term drivers of wealth<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2410-12. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: \u00a0 John Luke: Between the Fed Chair and the jobs report, the market\u2019s expectations of another 50 bps cut have gone from a tossup to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[57,124,199,276],"class_list":["post-237004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-fed","tag-jobs","tag-mortgage-rates","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, October 4 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-october-4\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, October 4 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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