{"id":236901,"date":"2024-09-20T12:28:15","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=236901"},"modified":"2024-09-20T16:10:37","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T20:10:37","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-september-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, September 20"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> The long pause is over, stocks enjoyed it<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: Strategas as of 09.16.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> the range of future forecasts for the Fed Funds rate is quite wide<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/em>Source: Bloomberg as of 09.18.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> and while this meeting had a rare \u201cPowell Fed\u201d dissenter<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.17.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> the generally assumed path of short-term rates resembles a recession path more than a soft landing<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Apollo as of 09.19.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> While the rates market has been uncertain as to the terminal rate for this cycle\u2019s Fed Funds rate <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Apollo as of 09.19 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> there\u2019s not a ton of evidence suggesting an imminent recession<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: Sevens Report as of 09.19.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and the cuts taking place across the globe should help cushion incoming effects from other economies<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.13.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> In the 1995 soft landing cycle, manufacturing immediately responded to rate cuts<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.17.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Arch:<\/strong> but the most closely-watched area in this cycle will likely be homebuying<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bianco as of 09.18.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> While mortgage rates have come down from the 2023 highs<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"
\nData as of 09.16.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> there are still many homeowners in love with their existing mortgages of 2021 vintage<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.16.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> and the general level of prices has stayed close to the highs in most parts of the country<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Sandbox Daily as of 09.16.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Looking at past instances, stocks have had a solid next 12 months when the Fed has cut rates near all-time equity highs<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brian:<\/em><\/strong> but if that pattern repeats itself, it won\u2019t be because of the \u201ccash on the sidelines\u201d; that measure has been remarkably stable over time<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Aptus via FRED as of 09.13.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Heading into the end of Q3, sales forecasts have failed to accelerate<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.17.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> but earnings have been supported by the profit margin recovery and expansion of recent years<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of August 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> We\u2019re still waiting for the broader market to grab the earnings baton from the megacap leaders<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Goldman Sachs as of 09.06.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> with energy the leading drag on overall results<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.17.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brian:<\/strong> Small caps have historically performed well after rate-cutting cycles start<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of August 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> and with their valuations as low as they\u2019ve been relative to large caps, there\u2019s no excuse for failing to make up some ground<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.18.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Large US corporations used the zero-interest rate era to dramatically improve their financial footing<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of August 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> can\u2019t say the same for the US government<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: @LukeGromen as of August 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2409-24. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The long pause is over, stocks enjoyed it   Source: Strategas as of 09.16.2024   John Luke: the range of future forecasts for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[216,67,185,316,595],"class_list":["post-236901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-fed-funds","tag-fomc","tag-housing","tag-rates","tag-small-caps"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The long pause is over, stocks enjoyed it   Source: Strategas as of 09.16.2024   John Luke: the range of future forecasts for the […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Long-Pause-Strategas-09.16-Dave.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Aptus PM Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Aptus PM Team\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Aptus PM Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2\"},\"headline\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 20\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\"},\"wordCount\":724,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Fed Funds\",\"FOMC\",\"Housing\",\"rates\",\"small caps\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\",\"Charts\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\",\"name\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 20\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\",\"name\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"description\":\"Portfolio Management for Wealth Managers\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png\",\"width\":674,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2\",\"name\":\"Aptus PM Team\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Aptus PM Team\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/author\/aptus-pm-team\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors","og_description":"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The long pause is over, stocks enjoyed it   Source: Strategas as of 09.16.2024   John Luke: the range of future forecasts for the […]","og_url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/","og_site_name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","article_published_time":"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Long-Pause-Strategas-09.16-Dave.png"}],"author":"Aptus PM Team","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Aptus PM Team","Est. reading time":"8 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/"},"author":{"name":"Aptus PM Team","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2"},"headline":"The Market in Pictures, September 20","datePublished":"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00","dateModified":"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/"},"wordCount":724,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Fed Funds","FOMC","Housing","rates","small caps"],"articleSection":["Blog","Charts"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/","name":"The Market in Pictures, September 20 - Aptus Capital Advisors","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-09-20T16:28:15+00:00","dateModified":"2024-09-20T20:10:37+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-20\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Market in Pictures, September 20"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/","name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","description":"Portfolio Management for Wealth Managers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization","name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png","width":674,"height":200,"caption":"Aptus Capital Advisors"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2","name":"Aptus PM Team","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Aptus PM Team"},"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/author\/aptus-pm-team\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=236901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=236901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=236901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=236901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}