{"id":236663,"date":"2024-08-09T16:12:24","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T20:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=236663"},"modified":"2024-08-09T16:12:24","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T20:12:24","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-august-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-august-9\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, August 9"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Stocks moved too, but the movement in the Volatility Index (VIX) was a top-decile event which has historically been favorable for forward returns<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Brian:<\/strong> that said, the positive returns from high VIX readings have also come with extreme volatility in the periods ahead<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/em><\/p>\n

Source: Aptus via Cboe as of 08.09.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> though as we know, history may rhyme but it doesn\u2019t exactly repeat<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> Now that megacap tech has come off of its highs, the drawdown for the average stock is not that far off from normal, especially given the recent drawdown in the indices<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Source: Strategas as of 08.07.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brian:<\/strong> and index drawdowns in line with what we\u2019ve seen happen in most years<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of January 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> what matters for investors is sticking around for the long-term benefits that are often even higher after these drawdowns, especially when recession is avoided<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 08.05.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> With the yen carry episode seemingly behind us, the market\u2019s obsession goes to the economy. Specifically, the employment side of the Fed\u2019s mandate<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of July 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> with the Sahm rule everyone\u2019s latest indicator of the day<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 08.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Arch:<\/strong> And while jobless claims may be trending up from historic lows<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 08.08.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> they\u2019re certainly not exploding, like some may have suggested in the past week<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Data as of 08.08.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and much of the rise in the unemployment rate has come from immigration, legal and otherwise, driving expansion of the labor force<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Apollo as of July 2024\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> and many of the layoffs have been seasonal and\/or temporary in nature<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of July 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> One obvious reason for the Fed being less impactful on the economy is the higher share of fixed rate debt among consumers and corporations, particularly homeowners<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Apollo as of June 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> with mortgage-holders reluctant to leave their COVID-era mortgages behind, at least until the recent fall in mortgage rates<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 08.04.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Another impact of the recent fall in rates has been better performance by yield-driven equities<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 08.07.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> part of a trend away from the megacap tech leadership since the tame inflation reports in July<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 08.07.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

JD:<\/strong> The area where we think warrants a clearer perspective is the impact of the debt continually issued by the US government<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Apollo as of 08.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> with more debt on the way to cover the deficits that are projected as far as anyone cares to look<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Goldman Sachs as of July 2024<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2408-17. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Stocks moved too, but the movement in the Volatility Index (VIX) was a top-decile event which has historically been favorable for forward returns   […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[647,636,223],"class_list":["post-236663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-jobless-claims","tag-sahm-rule","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, August 9 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-august-9\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, August 9 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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