{"id":236191,"date":"2024-06-05T07:42:27","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T11:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=236191"},"modified":"2024-06-06T11:24:57","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T15:24:57","slug":"winning-within-the-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/winning-within-the-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Winning Within the System"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019ve been reminded of two things this month:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>It is a privilege to get to write about things we think matter. Thank you for the opportunity.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The importance of communicating clearly.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I\u2019ve recently been given a chance to help the varsity basketball team at Fairhope. We are a few workouts in. There\u2019s some talent in the gym, which is fun to see, but so much of what I\u2019d expect to be known is brand new to these players.<\/p>\n<p>The Aptus roster isn&#8217;t strangers to the game of basketball. We probably take for granted the understanding of it we have. That\u2019s become more clear to me. I can\u2019t approach a drill, a guiding comment, or anything else on the court without simple and clear communication. You can\u2019t expect to teach or coach through complexity until there is an <em>established understanding of the basics<\/em>. That\u2019s what leads to the light bulb moments.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not sure how many of these notes get read, or how many are worthy of your time\u2026but I hope this one is. If for nothing else, to provide a simple rationale, clearly communicated, that supports the views held here.<\/p>\n<p>We say things like \u2018more stocks, less bonds\u2019 all the time. My worry is the rationale behind it isn\u2019t fully explained. We will scratch the surface of the explanation here, as that should be enough to make our point. \u00a0I assure you we are working to keep this note short.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Attention Please<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If you are reading this, you are lucky enough to hold the responsibility of stewarding assets.<\/p>\n<p>We believe bonds are a trap, they are certificates of confiscation. Anything with a \u2018fixed\u2019 in the title, a \u2018guarantee\u2019 in the marketing material, or \u2018annuity\u2019 in the name should have such a high hurdle for inclusion in portfolios, it\u2019s not even funny.<\/p>\n<p>We believe your wealth will only be protected by owning assets that are considered risk assets\u2026stocks would meet that definition. We strongly believe stocks &gt; bonds, and the behavioral traps of higher interest rates or safer routes will only lead to unwanted longevity risk coming back to haunt investors in the future.<\/p>\n<p>We build strategies specifically to help allocations while keeping an eye on potential for drawdowns. And I believe we are providing investors with needed solutions. This note does not intend to discuss our strategies. I simply want to communicate the basic reasoning behind our convictions.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve realized that explaining the basics of how our economic system works is the place to start. Today, we are hoping to bring relevant meaning to all things we repeatedly say \u2013 we want light bulb moments.<\/p>\n<p>So, how does our system work?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Selling a House<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say you want to sell your house. A buyer comes in, puts down 20% of the asking price. A bank loans the remaining 80% of the value and 30 days later you get your money, and they get their house.<\/p>\n<p>On the surface, everything is great for all three parties involved.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Buyer<\/strong>: The buyer only puts down a fraction of the price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Seller: <\/strong>20% is easier for buyers to come up with than 100% This should lead to more potential buyers and a higher selling price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bank:<\/strong> The bank can create a loan with minimal cost and they are incentivized to make loans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Both the buyer and the seller exit the transaction with goods they can use. You have money and the buyer has a house.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s overlooked is the difference between what existed before the transaction closed and what existed after.<\/p>\n<p>You have money being exchanged for a house. The house existed at the beginning and end of the transaction. The money (or at least 80% of the value of the house) was created to settle the transaction. It was created when the loan occurred.<\/p>\n<p>To say this clearly \u2013 money is created when new debt is issued.<\/p>\n<p>Although the transaction above looks great on the surface, there is a cost. Said differently, there is a party that loses. It\u2019s those that hold the currency. More supply devalues the currency already in hand.<\/p>\n<p>The purpose of banks is to multiply money. They multiply it through credit\u2026making loans. More loans = more supply of money in our system.<\/p>\n<p>What backs all that money? Not gold, not cash. There are liabilities all the way down; that\u2019s a topic for another note.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Money vs. Capital<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That concept is incredibly important to think about as we continue.\u00a0In <a href=\"https:\/\/saifedean.com\/tfs\">The Fiat Standard<\/a>, Saifedean Ammous uses ideas from the work of Ludwig von Mises to differentiate the two:<\/p>\n<p>The central conclusion in <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/library\/book\/theory-money-and-credit\">The Theory of Money and Credit<\/a>\u00a0was that expansion of credit cannot form a substitute for capital. Capital is economic goods that can be used to produce other economic goods. Money can be traded for capital goods <em>but cannot substitute them<\/em>. The stock of capital cannot be increased by producing more claims on it.<\/p>\n<p>Economic productivity is created from capital goods, not more money in the system.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Inflation Incentive<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To add insult to injury, not only is our system designed to drive debt creation that devalues the units of currency currently outstanding, but other incentives for its orchestrators to continually force inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m going to paraphrase Lyn Alden\u2019s example in her book <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/broken-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Broken Money<\/a> for this illustration:<\/p>\n<p>Suppose you bought the vacation home we discussed above for $300k. You owned it for 10 years and the money supply grew at 10% a year during that time. Fortunately for you, your house is a form of capital whose supply was constricted (it is harder to build houses than create money). This led to your house increasing in value along with the money supply. You sell it for $778k.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Notice: you didn\u2019t improve your wealth through your home\u2019s appreciation, you simply kept pace with money supply growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>You sell for $778k and you have to pay 20% capital gains on the $478k of appreciation. That\u2019s $96k of taxes and a whopping 32% of the original price you bought it for, or 12.3% of the current price.<\/p>\n<p>The government has an incentive for inflation to occur, as capital gains taxes are not adjusted for the dilution of money supply. They get a bigger share of the transacted wealth if the dollar numbers are inflated.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>The Fed and Deficits<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Now, we should consider the backdrop we are faced with as investors.<\/p>\n<p>In the past, we\u2019ve discussed the increasing cost of our government\u2019s debt and the deficits we are currently running. We have a greater supply of Treasuries hitting the market than ever before. We always ask, who is going to buy that supply? Before you answer, keep this in mind\u2026<\/p>\n<p>If you run a business and need capital, you can look to issue a bond. In a perfect world, you could issue a bond with a long time to maturity for the lowest interest rate possible. Let\u2019s say you issue 10-year bonds and you are willing to pay 5% on those bonds.<\/p>\n<p>No takers\u2026 now what?<\/p>\n<p>Well, if you want capital, you have to raise the rate until you find a taker.<\/p>\n<p>In our government\u2019s case, these market dynamics cannot be avoided. This again begs the question\u2026who is going to buy the bonds?<\/p>\n<p>The Fed that\u2019s who. Here\u2019s what that looks like:<\/p>\n<p>The US government is running deficits, and they need to be funded with Treasury bond issuance. Our government issues T-bonds to raise money to fund their operations.<\/p>\n<p>The buyer of those bonds is the Fed\u2026at least for the most part. The Fed is creating new bank reserves (that\u2019s a fancy way of saying dollars out of thin air) to buy the bonds. This process is the same as your house transaction in that this process increases the money supply\u2026that side of the transaction didn\u2019t exist until the issuance of Treasury debt.<\/p>\n<p>Money supply growth leads to inflation. As Ammous points out, from 1960 to 2020, the US grew the money supply at an annual rate of 7.4%. I\u2019d say our backdrop looks a little different at this point. \u00a0Do you think our money supply is set to shrink or expand?<\/p>\n<p>Forget the bogus CPI headlines\u2026we think your attention should be on money supply growth. We\u2019ve said it before, you should start to think of our % deficit as the hurdle rate to protecting wealth. For example, if we run 7% deficits, we think that\u2019s the required return to break even on your investment capital. It\u2019s not the stated CPI number, as this post is not intended to incorporate how faulty that \u2018measure\u2019 of inflation is.<\/p>\n<p>As a side note on CPI and the recent inflation focus\u2026remember when they said it was transitory? Reality is, it\u2019s never been transitory. Notice in the early 1970s when it took off. I wonder what happened there?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-236192\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Consumer-Price-Index-Monthly-Note-June-2024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Consumer-Price-Index-Monthly-Note-June-2024.png 1200w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Consumer-Price-Index-Monthly-Note-June-2024-980x512.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Consumer-Price-Index-Monthly-Note-June-2024-480x251.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1200px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>It\u2019s Not a Doom and Gloom Picture<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re still with us and think this note is on the path towards a doom and gloom outcome, it\u2019s not.<\/p>\n<p>In our opinion, our country can continue down this path for longer than anybody believes. Continuing that path most likely leads to higher prices in risk assets. Therefore, risk assets are what we believe should make up the bulk of an allocation.<\/p>\n<p>If a catastrophe hits the financial markets, we love the inclusion of hedges into portfolios, which is why we own them. Until then, the path of least resistance for risk assets is higher\u2026let\u2019s adjust our allocation accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>Please re-read our December post: <span style=\"color: #1881ea;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #1881ea;\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/taxation-by-inflation\/\">Taxation by Inflation<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>For a summary of the post, this is a relevant snip:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cHistorically, our government has been a beneficiary of inflation, as large levels of debt have been inflated away. It\u2019s much easier and less transparent to fund certain initiatives through non-transparent confiscation of purchasing power than it is with explicit taxation.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Closing<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In our opinion, the nature of our economic system and fiscal backdrop point to expanding money supply. Like kids trying to win at hoops, understanding the floor dynamics gives you an edge in knowing how to use the assets available to you.<\/p>\n<p>As simple as it sounds, at least stocks can grow. They can grow revenues, earnings, margins, dividends, etc. They combine these attributes with the fact that their supply is much harder to adjust upward, relative to the amount of currency in supply. This combination is a weapon against the silent confiscation of purchasing power.<\/p>\n<p>As investors, we are compensated for absorbing risks. I hope this note is a reminder of what the real risk is, and that we are positioning as best we can.<\/p>\n<p>As always, thank you for your trust and please don\u2019t hesitate to reach out with any questions.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2406-1.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019ve been reminded of two things this month: It is a privilege to get to write about things we think matter. Thank you for the opportunity. The importance of communicating clearly. I\u2019ve recently been given a chance to help the varsity basketball team at Fairhope. We are a few workouts in. There\u2019s some talent in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":233925,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[291,616,83,451,617],"class_list":["post-236191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-updates","tag-content-hub","tag-fiat-standard","tag-inflation","tag-money-supply","tag-risk-assets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Winning Within the System - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/winning-within-the-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Winning Within the System - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I\u2019ve been reminded of two things this month: It is a privilege to get to write about things we think matter. 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