{"id":235853,"date":"2024-04-05T14:32:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T18:32:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=235853"},"modified":"2024-04-05T14:32:35","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T18:32:35","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-april-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-april-5\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, April 5"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham: <\/em><\/strong>After this week\u2019s data and Fedspeak, it\u2019s now a toss-up for markets whether the first rate cut comes in early June or late July<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: CME as of 04.05.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> a far cry from thoughts of seeing 3-4 cuts by summer, as expected by markets at the turn of this year<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 04.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Contrasting the delay of expected rate cuts is the persistent rise in GDP estimates<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 04.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> which is somewhat coincident with a trough and rise in the ISM Manufacturing Survey<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 04.01.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> and a steady increase in non-farm payrolls month after month (March preliminary read came in at 300k)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 04.01.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> High levels of construction in manufacturing facilities are surely part of the equation, running at a $2 trillion annualized pace <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of March 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> it\u2019s also hard to deny the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on overall productivity levels, which feeds into growth<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of March 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> The first three months of 2024 have been pretty extreme in terms of return generated per unit of volatility<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> even more pronounced when you consider the volatility in the \u201csafe\u201d bond market relative to stocks<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> The story of a positive equity trend with low volatility has not gone unnoticed, and potentially adds a level of drawdown risk to consider<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Hi Mount as of 04.01.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brian:<\/strong> also seen as the ultra-low cost of hedging, which for a thoughtful investor can provide a nice opportunity to reduce risk without disrupting the strategic stock\/bond allocation<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Aptus as of 04.01.2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> As good as stocks have been, from a fundamental standpoint it seems the risk may ultimately be higher in higher-yielding bonds than in the broader equity market<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: State Street as of March 2024<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> and when you break down by sector and style it\u2019s amazing to see how important it is to be discriminating as you go out into smaller-cap stocks (1\/3 are non-earners!)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> No one knows where stocks will end up in the coming years, but using history as a guide we should probably stay open-minded to a range of possibilities<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2404-19.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: After this week\u2019s data and Fedspeak, it\u2019s now a toss-up for markets whether the first rate cut comes in early June or late […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[477,84,65,273,600,179,306,168,63],"class_list":["post-235853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-ai","tag-bonds","tag-drawdown","tag-equity","tag-manufacturing","tag-markets","tag-rate-cuts","tag-stocks","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, April 5 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-april-5\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, April 5 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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