{"id":235567,"date":"2024-02-14T16:40:31","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T21:40:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=235567"},"modified":"2024-02-14T16:40:31","modified_gmt":"2024-02-14T21:40:31","slug":"cpi-shelter-costs-remain-uncomfortably-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/cpi-shelter-costs-remain-uncomfortably-high\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI: Shelter Costs Remain Uncomfortably High"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p><u>January CPI<\/u><\/p>\n<p>MoM<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Headline: +0.3% (Exp: +0.2%)<\/li>\n<li>Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>YoY<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Headline: +3.1% (Exp: +2.9%)<\/li>\n<li>Core: +3.9% (Exp: +3.7%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235568\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/CPI-statistics_Stifel-2.13.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"875\" height=\"587\" \/><em>Source: Stifel as of 02.13.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Officials have acknowledged that rate cuts will likely be appropriate at some point this year, but have consistently pushed back on the aggressive market expectations. The narrative has been that officials want additional evidence to confirm that improving inflation over the previous six reports will continue and that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%. However, Tuesday\u2019s CPI inflation report was anything but such evidence.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line: Consumer prices reaccelerated at the start of the year, reinforcing the Fed\u2019s need for further patience, as the pathway for inflation remains uncertain. Down from earlier peak levels, the lack of continued downward momentum may keep policymakers from believing that inflation will retreat to 2% \u2013 at least yet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>CPI Component Breakdown<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235569\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/CPI-components_Citadel-2.14.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"1169\" \/><em>Source: Citadel as of 02.14.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>What is the Market Pricing Now?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On January 12, traders were pricing in almost seven rate cuts for the year, the largest number of cuts priced in during this cycle.\u00a0 After CPI\u2019s release, traders became even more pessimistic about rate cuts. In fact, they are now close to matching the Fed\u2019s thinking (~3 cuts in 2024 per their latest DOT Plot).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235570\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Hikes-Price-Cuts_Bloomberg-2.14.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"986\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Hikes-Price-Cuts_Bloomberg-2.14.24-980x945.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Hikes-Price-Cuts_Bloomberg-2.14.24-480x463.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1022px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Bloomberg as of 02.14.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Month-Over-Month Inflation Comps<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the next few months (red bars), headline CPI will be replacing 0.4% (February), 0.1% (March), and 0.4% (April).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235571\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Month-over-month-cpi_Bianco-2.13.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1026\" height=\"773\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Month-over-month-cpi_Bianco-2.13.24-980x739.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Month-over-month-cpi_Bianco-2.13.24-480x362.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1026px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Bianco as of 02.13.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As of now, the Cleveland Fed\u2019s CPI Nowcast puts February\u2019s month-over-month headline CPI growth at 0.37%. This would be enough to keep year-over-year CPI above 3%. Additionally, a period of lower month-over-month numbers between March and July 2023 will roll off the year-over-year calculation in the next seven months, making further declines more difficult.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve said this before and we\u2019ll say it again: Ultimately a sustainable decrease in inflation requires shelter prices to revert to pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Shelter Inflation: Thorn in the Fed\u2019s Side<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows the cumulative gains starting in 2015 of the Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index and the Zillow Rental Index, vs. the two measures of Shelter CPI (OER &amp; RPR).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235572\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/CPI-inflation-measures_Bianco-2.14.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1043\" height=\"756\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/CPI-inflation-measures_Bianco-2.14.24-980x710.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/CPI-inflation-measures_Bianco-2.14.24-480x348.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1043px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Bianco as of 02.14.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We believe the cumulative chart is a better metric for measuring expectations. OER and RPR have significantly understated the cumulative rise in housing inflation since early 2021. We think it\u2019s likely that OER and RPR have to \u201ccatch up\u201d to the market measures by staying \u201csticky\u201d as the gap to Zillow and\/or Case-Shiller closes.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Odds of a Recession Declining<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No real surprise here as the tape drives the consensus.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235573\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/US-recession-odds_Bianco-2.14.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1004\" height=\"719\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/US-recession-odds_Bianco-2.14.24-980x702.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/US-recession-odds_Bianco-2.14.24-480x344.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1004px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Bianco as of 02.14.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In a recent Bloomberg Survey, The Economist\u2019s odds of a U.S. Recession have plummeted on the back of resilient data and strong risk market performance. While we certainly aren\u2019t out of the woods, it is interesting to see what a few strong months of equity performance will do to forecasts!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Cost of Money for Small Business is Elevated<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Money is now costing small businesses ~9%.\u00a0 That funding is always more expensive than Wall Street funding, and companies are also now forced to adapt to a new rate environment. Time will tell how long it can last.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235574\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Paid-small-biz-interest-loans_Strategas-1.31.24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"886\" height=\"669\" \/><em>Source: Strategas as of 01.31.2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Given the disruption to rapid disinflation following yesterday\u2019s CPI report, we are likely to see policy rate cuts on hold for now. While policy rates have different levels of impact on each segment of the economy, we do think policy is restrictive at the small business level. If overdone, there could be negative consequences on the economy.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2402-14.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts. January CPI MoM Headline: +0.3% (Exp: +0.2%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY Headline: +3.1% (Exp: +2.9%) Core: +3.9% (Exp: +3.7%) &nbsp; Source: Stifel as of 02.13.2024 &nbsp; Officials have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,128],"tags":[53],"class_list":["post-235567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-bonds","tag-cpi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CPI: Shelter Costs Remain Uncomfortably High - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/cpi-shelter-costs-remain-uncomfortably-high\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CPI: Shelter Costs Remain Uncomfortably High - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. 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