{"id":235208,"date":"2023-12-29T12:36:09","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T17:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=235208"},"modified":"2023-12-29T15:53:08","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T20:53:08","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-december-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, December 29"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235209 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Low-Expectations-Bberg-12.26-Joseph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"765\" height=\"466\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Low-Expectations-Bberg-12.26-Joseph.png 765w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Low-Expectations-Bberg-12.26-Joseph-480x292.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 765px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brett:<\/strong> and in the past few years they just seem to tag along with wherever prices currently stand<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235210 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Strategist-Targets-@WarrenPies-12.29.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"706\" height=\"456\" \/>Source: @WarrenPies as of 12.27.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Beckham:<\/strong> confirmed by the wider population of active investment managers who seem to also just follow price<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235211 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sentiment-Follows-Price-NAAIM-12.28.2023.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"622\" height=\"797\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sentiment-Follows-Price-NAAIM-12.28.2023.png 622w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sentiment-Follows-Price-NAAIM-12.28.2023-480x615.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 622px, 100vw\" \/>Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers as of 12.27.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> In just a few weeks, the huge discount for small-cap equity valuations has shrunk to almost normal levels<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235212 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Small-Cap-Discount-Gone-RJ-12.27-Joseph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"689\" height=\"388\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Small-Cap-Discount-Gone-RJ-12.27-Joseph.png 689w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Small-Cap-Discount-Gone-RJ-12.27-Joseph-480x270.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 689px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> but the impact of this volatility is a major drag on compounded returns<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235213 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sector-Vol-Tax-Aptus-12.27-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sector-Vol-Tax-Aptus-12.27-Dave.png 720w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sector-Vol-Tax-Aptus-12.27-Dave-480x378.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 720px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Rate cut expectations for 2024 seem to have raced far ahead of reality<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235214 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Rate-Expectations-Creative-Planning-12.27.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"681\" height=\"434\" \/>Data as of 12.27.2023<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> especially without a decent spike in unemployment<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235215 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Rate-Cuts-at-4-Unemployment-Strategas-12.27.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"715\" height=\"303\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Rate-Cuts-at-4-Unemployment-Strategas-12.27.png 715w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Rate-Cuts-at-4-Unemployment-Strategas-12.27-480x204.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 715px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Strategas as of 12.26.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> and while rate cuts seem fun, history says that eventually market volatility makes a comeback<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235216 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/VIX-after-Hikes-Market-Ear-12.28-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"729\" height=\"427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/VIX-after-Hikes-Market-Ear-12.28-JL.png 729w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/VIX-after-Hikes-Market-Ear-12.28-JL-480x281.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 729px, 100vw\" \/>Source: The Market Ear as of 12.26.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Yield curve inversions have historically been a reliable precursor to recessions, and this is no quick inversion<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235217 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Curve-Inversion-Creative-Planning-12.27-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"724\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Curve-Inversion-Creative-Planning-12.27-JL.png 724w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Curve-Inversion-Creative-Planning-12.27-JL-480x320.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 724px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> but don\u2019t sleep on the price of oil as a distinguishing factor for recessions vs. soft landings<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235218 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Oil-and-Recessions-RJ-12.27-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"3300\" height=\"1375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Oil-and-Recessions-RJ-12.27-Dave.png 3300w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Oil-and-Recessions-RJ-12.27-Dave-1280x533.png 1280w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Oil-and-Recessions-RJ-12.27-Dave-980x408.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Oil-and-Recessions-RJ-12.27-Dave-480x200.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 3300px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Small banks have been particularly weak performers this year<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235219 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Small-Bank-Struggles-Bianco-12.27-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"701\" height=\"503\" \/>Source: Bianco as of 12.26.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> and would seem to be a large distinction between those lending for single-family<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235220 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Single-Family-Daily-Chartbook-12.26.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Single-Family-Daily-Chartbook-12.26.png 702w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Single-Family-Daily-Chartbook-12.26-480x360.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 702px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of December 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> versus multi-family<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235221 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Multi-Family-Foreclosure-Daily-Chartbook-12.27.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"749\" height=\"568\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Multi-Family-Foreclosure-Daily-Chartbook-12.27.jpg 749w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Multi-Family-Foreclosure-Daily-Chartbook-12.27-480x364.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 749px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of December 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brian:<\/strong> History will not look kindly on entities that locked in decades of negative real yields for their \u201csafe\u201d money<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235222 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Treasury-Yield-Curve-Aptus-12.27-Brian.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"735\" height=\"504\" \/>Source: Aptus as of December 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JD:<\/strong> It\u2019s never a bad time for a reminder that clients will always have an excuse to bail but the best plan is the one they can stick with<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-235223 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Always-a-Sell-Koyfin-12.27.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"779\" height=\"519\" \/>Data as of December 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2312-33.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; Joseph: Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024 &nbsp; &nbsp; Brett: and in the past few years they just [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[371,376,316,285,405,457,63,475],"class_list":["post-235208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-banks","tag-debt","tag-rates","tag-returns","tag-sandp500","tag-smallcap","tag-volatility","tag-yieldcurve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, December 29 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, December 29 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; Joseph: Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024 &nbsp; &nbsp; Brett: and in the past few years they just [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/","og_site_name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","article_published_time":"2023-12-29T17:36:09+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-12-29T20:53:08+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Low-Expectations-Bberg-12.26-Joseph.png"}],"author":"Aptus PM Team","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Aptus PM Team","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/"},"author":{"name":"Aptus PM Team","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2"},"headline":"The Market in Pictures, December 29","datePublished":"2023-12-29T17:36:09+00:00","dateModified":"2023-12-29T20:53:08+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/"},"wordCount":577,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["banks","debt","rates","returns","Sandp500","smallcap","volatility","yieldcurve"],"articleSection":["Blog","Charts"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-29\/","name":"The Market in Pictures, December 29 - 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