{"id":234976,"date":"2023-12-08T12:00:02","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T17:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=234976"},"modified":"2023-12-08T16:13:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-08T21:13:09","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-december-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-8\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, December 8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Markets are currently obsessed with the idea of multiple rate cuts in 2024. Historically, rate \u201cholds\u201d have been friendlier to stocks than cuts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-234977 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Fed-Hold-vs.-Cut-Strategas-12.05-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"586\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.04.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Brett:<\/strong> and even with cuts, performance has been much different depending on the economic outcomes<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234978 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Last-Cut-Then-Goldman-Dec-2023-Mark.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"505\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Last-Cut-Then-Goldman-Dec-2023-Mark.png 680w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Last-Cut-Then-Goldman-Dec-2023-Mark-480x356.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 680px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Data as of November 2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Not sure the recent drop in yields looks much different than the retracements that came before it<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234979 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Retracement-Strategas-12.06-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"982\" height=\"602\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Retracement-Strategas-12.06-Dave-980x601.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Yield-Retracement-Strategas-12.06-Dave-480x295.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 982px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Brian:<\/strong> especially with the persistent rise in real yields from the historically negative levels of the COVID period<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234980 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Real-Yield-Curve-FRED-12.05-Brian.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"962\" height=\"643\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Aptus via Department of the Treasury as of 12.01.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Brad:<\/strong> We\u2019ve shown the 2023 dominance of the Mag Seven in a number of ways; here\u2019s the 7 vs. the 493<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234981 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/SP-493-Bberg-12.06-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"958\" height=\"463\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><br \/>\nSource: Bloomberg as of 12.06.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Brad:<\/strong> with the average stock having its worst performance of the 2000s relative to the cap-weighted S&amp;P 500<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234982 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Average-Stock-Weak-Strategas-12.06-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"683\" height=\"555\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Average-Stock-Weak-Strategas-12.06-Brad.png 683w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Average-Stock-Weak-Strategas-12.06-Brad-480x390.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 683px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.06.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> but since the October lows, the lagging has ended<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234983 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Broader-Market-Participating-Strategas-12.04-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1023\" height=\"641\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Broader-Market-Participating-Strategas-12.04-Dave-980x614.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Broader-Market-Participating-Strategas-12.04-Dave-480x301.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1023px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> with plenty of room for the average stock to work its way back towards the 2021 highs<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234984 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Broader-Market-Room-BofA-12.04-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"970\" height=\"565\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: BofA as of 12.04.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> One oddity we\u2019ve noticed is that small-cap growth hasn\u2019t dominated small-cap value the way we\u2019ve seen in large-cap stocks<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234985 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Growth-vs.-Value-Strategas-Strategas-12.05-Dave-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"957\" height=\"593\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> perhaps from a mix of persistently low quality in small-cap growth relative to large, and the growing ranks of funds built to follow what\u2019s been in favor<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234986 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Sector-Momentum-Strategas-12.05-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"564\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Dave:<\/strong> A developing story could be the emerging rise in US labor productivity from the lowest levels in 40 years<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234987 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-Alpine-Macro-12.06-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"546\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-Alpine-Macro-12.06-Dave.png 764w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-Alpine-Macro-12.06-Dave-480x343.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 764px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of November 2023<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Brian:<\/strong> perhaps a factor that could keep unit labor costs from extending recent gains<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234988 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-BLS-12.04-Brian.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1801\" height=\"642\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-BLS-12.04-Brian.png 1801w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-BLS-12.04-Brian-1280x456.png 1280w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-BLS-12.04-Brian-980x349.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Productivity-BLS-12.04-Brian-480x171.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1801px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Data as of 09.30.2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> A December rally in stocks seems to be the consensus call, but it\u2019s important to consider the funding needs of major participants like corporate pensions<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234989 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/PEnsion-Funding-Goldman-Oct-2023-Mark.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"919\" height=\"811\" \/>Data as of 10.31.2023<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Mark:<\/strong> and we also know that the corporate stock buyback window is about to close until earnings season in mid-January<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234990 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Corporate-Bubacks-Ending-Goldman-12.04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"513\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\"><strong>Beckham:<\/strong> Sometimes you just need to sit back and marvel at the power of a company on a mission. Amazon takes on an oligopoly and is winning<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-234991 \" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Amazon-Shipping-Twitter-via-BNP-Paribas.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"909\" height=\"556\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Data as of September 2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Disclosures<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2312-13.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Markets are currently obsessed with the idea of multiple rate cuts in 2024. Historically, rate \u201cholds\u201d have been friendlier to stocks than cuts &nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[57,124,551,179,556,405,457,168,475,178],"class_list":["post-234976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-fed","tag-jobs","tag-magnificentseven","tag-markets","tag-ratecuts","tag-sandp500","tag-smallcap","tag-stocks","tag-yieldcurve","tag-yields"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, December 8 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-december-8\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, December 8 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Markets are currently obsessed with the idea of multiple rate cuts in 2024. 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