{"id":234845,"date":"2023-11-17T15:46:53","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T20:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=234845"},"modified":"2023-11-17T15:46:53","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T20:46:53","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-november-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-17\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, November 17"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dave:<\/strong> Tuesday\u2019s reaction to the tame CPI report was the ripper of the year<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 11.14.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> as markets have more confidence that the Fed will move rates lower in the first half of 2024<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: CME Fed Watch Tool as of 11.14.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> BUT, we\u2019ve seen this movie before in the past 18 months<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 11.15.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brett:<\/strong> and markets are still reluctant to price in imminent rate cuts<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 11.15.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Services is the component keeping inflation above the Fed\u2019s comfort level<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and specifically shelter as the one area comprising the bulk of the services impact<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> and you can really see the significant build-up in housing costs over the past few years<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Bianco as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> Reminder that stock-bond correlations are not a number you can just plug into planning software, they float in a wide range depending on inflation<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Strategas as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and right now, we\u2019re in the inflation range where correlation is clearly positive<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> Even with recent contractions, central banks around the world are still sitting on large balance sheet debts<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 11.15.2023<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and the US government fiscal picture is not exactly helping the Treasury\u2019s ability to reduce borrowing needs<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Stifel as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> despite that picture on the government side, investors aren\u2019t overly concerned about the repayment ability of US corporations<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Source: Bloomberg as of 11.13.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> On the earnings front, consensus estimates are factoring in a serious boost from profit margins<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 11.13.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> but we\u2019re seeing incremental cuts in forward earnings estimates as we go through the Q3 earnings season<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> It seems like megacap tech has been the consensus trade forever, but it\u2019s actually been hot and cold based on recent performance<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of 11.13.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and the sentiment towards the future course of bonds has completely flipped this year as investors think we\u2019ve seen the highs of this cycle<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Market Ear as of 11.13.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> Looking ahead to an election year, as we\u2019ve historically seen decent performance with the current electoral makeup<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> and the weak election years have historically come when there is no incumbent in office to promote a re-election agenda<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Source: Strategas as of 11.13.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2311-15.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dave: Tuesday\u2019s reaction to the tame CPI report was the ripper of the year   Source: Strategas as of 11.14.2023   John Luke: as markets have more confidence that the Fed will move rates lower in the first half of 2024   Source: CME Fed Watch Tool as of 11.14.2023   John Luke: BUT, we\u2019ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[563,561,562,257,230],"class_list":["post-234845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-2024-earnings","tag-2024-election","tag-correlations","tag-fed-balance-sheet","tag-fed-pivot"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, November 17 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-17\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, November 17 - 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