{"id":234594,"date":"2023-10-06T15:21:25","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T19:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=234594"},"modified":"2023-10-06T15:22:26","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T19:22:26","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-october-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-october-6\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, October 6"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>John Luke:<\/em><\/strong><em> The first reaction to the jobs report was to sell, but continued slowing of wage growth became a bullish takeaway<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-234595\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Wage-Inflation-Slowing-Bberg-10.06-JL-1024x445.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Wage-Inflation-Slowing-Bberg-10.06-JL-980x426.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Wage-Inflation-Slowing-Bberg-10.06-JL-480x209.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Bloomberg as of 10.06.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Joseph:<\/em><\/strong><em> even with the slowing wage growth, it would be out of the norm to just ease rates lower without a crisis<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-234596\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fed-Hikes-Bianco-Sept-2023-Joseph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"757\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fed-Hikes-Bianco-Sept-2023-Joseph.png 757w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fed-Hikes-Bianco-Sept-2023-Joseph-480x357.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 757px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Brad:<\/em><\/strong><em> The inverted yield curve has been historic but the past few weeks have seen a shrink in its extremeness<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-234597 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Inversion-Unwinding-Strategas-10.04-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"687\" height=\"588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Inversion-Unwinding-Strategas-10.04-Brad.png 687w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Inversion-Unwinding-Strategas-10.04-Brad-480x411.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 687px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Joseph:<\/em><\/strong> <em>It\u2019s been real yields<\/em> <em>driving this year\u2019s bump in rates, not expectations for higher long-term inflation<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-234598 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-TS-Lombard-Sept-2023-Joseph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-TS-Lombard-Sept-2023-Joseph.png 337w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-TS-Lombard-Sept-2023-Joseph-300x264.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 337px) 100vw, 337px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: TS Lombard as of 10.02.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>John Luke:<\/em><\/strong> <em>and rising real yields have historically been a contributor to lower valuations for stocks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-234599\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-Should-Hammer-Valuation-IBES-Sept-2023-JL.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"941\" height=\"688\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-Should-Hammer-Valuation-IBES-Sept-2023-JL.jpg 941w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Real-Yields-Should-Hammer-Valuation-IBES-Sept-2023-JL-480x351.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 941px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of October 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dave:<\/em><\/strong> <em>Despite the swift rise, no reporting analyst sees much more upside for 10 year rates<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-234600\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/10-Yr-Yield-Forecasts-Strategas-10.02-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1025\" height=\"678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/10-Yr-Yield-Forecasts-Strategas-10.02-Dave.png 1025w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/10-Yr-Yield-Forecasts-Strategas-10.02-Dave-980x648.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/10-Yr-Yield-Forecasts-Strategas-10.02-Dave-480x318.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1025px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Mark:<\/strong> A rising concern for investors has been the steep rise in future interest expense for the US government<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-234601\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/US-Interest-Cost-Goldman-Sept-2023-Mark-1024x457.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/US-Interest-Cost-Goldman-Sept-2023-Mark-980x437.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/US-Interest-Cost-Goldman-Sept-2023-Mark-480x214.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>John Luke:<\/em><\/strong><em> also seen in debt costs in relation to tax revenues<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-234602 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Interest-to-Budget-Bianco-10.04-JL-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Interest-to-Budget-Bianco-10.04-JL-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Interest-to-Budget-Bianco-10.04-JL-980x735.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Interest-to-Budget-Bianco-10.04-JL-480x360.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of September 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>John Luke:<\/em><\/strong><em> resulting from higher rates but also higher government spending<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-234603\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Treasury-Auctions-Apollo-10.04-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Treasury-Auctions-Apollo-10.04-JL.png 1024w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Treasury-Auctions-Apollo-10.04-JL-980x551.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Treasury-Auctions-Apollo-10.04-JL-480x270.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Apollo as of 10.04.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Beckham:<\/em><\/strong><em> Like clockwork, investment managers grow more cautious about stocks as prices fall<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-234604 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/NAAIM-Sentiment-Sept-2023-1024x636.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"636\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/NAAIM-Sentiment-Sept-2023-1024x636.png 1024w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/NAAIM-Sentiment-Sept-2023-980x609.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/NAAIM-Sentiment-Sept-2023-480x298.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: NAAIM as of 10.02.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Beckham:<\/strong> Laying the groundwork for the next wall of worry for stocks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-234605\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Sentiment-Bodes-Well-NDR-10.04-1024x805.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Sentiment-Bodes-Well-NDR-10.04-1024x805.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Sentiment-Bodes-Well-NDR-10.04-980x771.jpg 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Sentiment-Bodes-Well-NDR-10.04-480x378.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of 10.03.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Earnings estimates as a whole have been rising from the spring lows<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-234606\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/EPS-Estimates-Rising-Bernstein-10.02-Dave-1024x698.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"698\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/EPS-Estimates-Rising-Bernstein-10.02-Dave-980x668.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/EPS-Estimates-Rising-Bernstein-10.02-Dave-480x327.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Bernstein as of September 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> but there\u2019s a wide range of contributors depending on which sector you\u2019re watching<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-234607\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Earnings-Weighted-Sectors-Strategas-10.04-Dave-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Earnings-Weighted-Sectors-Strategas-10.04-Dave-980x553.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Earnings-Weighted-Sectors-Strategas-10.04-Dave-480x271.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 10.04.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Banks are a perfect example of the economic debate, sitting on large losses on their bond holdings<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-234608 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Bank-Unrealized-Losses-Alpine-Macro-Sept-2023-JL-615x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"615\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Bank-Unrealized-Losses-Alpine-Macro-Sept-2023-JL-615x1024.jpg 615w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Bank-Unrealized-Losses-Alpine-Macro-Sept-2023-JL-480x800.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 615px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of September 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> but taking very few charge offs on commercial real estate despite the obvious secular headwinds<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-234609 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CRE-Chargeoffs-Sept-2023-Dave-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CRE-Chargeoffs-Sept-2023-Dave-980x550.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CRE-Chargeoffs-Sept-2023-Dave-480x269.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/>Source: JP Morgan as of September 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> This is probably what will define the next market leg\u2026does market breadth align through a Magnificent 7 fall, or a broader rally?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-234610 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Average-Stock-Minus-20-Strategas-10.02-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"681\" height=\"564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Average-Stock-Minus-20-Strategas-10.02-Brad.png 681w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Average-Stock-Minus-20-Strategas-10.02-Brad-480x398.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 681px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 10.02.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2310-09.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; John Luke: The first reaction to the jobs report was to sell, but continued slowing of wage growth became a bullish takeaway &nbsp; Source: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[537,539,191,538,349,215,256,49],"class_list":["post-234594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-charts","tag-interest-expense","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-market-breadth","tag-naaim","tag-q3-earnings","tag-real-yields","tag-wage-growth","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, October 6 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-october-6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, October 6 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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