{"id":234527,"date":"2023-09-22T11:42:51","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T15:42:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=234527"},"modified":"2023-09-22T16:09:43","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T20:09:43","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-september-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, September 22"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn\u2019t moved, but a few members have moved their targets higher<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bloomberg as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> and the market is again \u201ccatching up\u201d to what Chairman Powell has repeatedly telling them what to expect<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bianco as of 09.21.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> It\u2019s interesting to see how Fed \u201cpauses\u201d have replaced \u201cpivots\u201d in the lower rate environment of recent decades<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> As investors get used to the Fed \u201cdot plots\u201d showing a commitment to higher rates\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bianco as of 09.21.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dave:<\/strong> it\u2019s important to remember it wasn\u2019t that long ago that ultra-low rates were expected by the FOMC members themselves<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bianco as of 09.21.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> With a few glaring exceptions like 2021, Treasury yields have historically tracked fairly closely to Nominal GDP growth<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Beckham:<\/strong> and the Fed is now bumping up its projections of 2023 and 2024 Real GDP growth<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> but in the past, yield curve inversions have eventually led to recessions<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Bianco as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph:<\/strong> and the Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) have fallen 17 months in a row<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of 09.21.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> CPI readings are still heavily driven by services inputs<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.19.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

John Luke:<\/strong> muting the impact of recently rising oil prices on the \u201ccore\u201d readings that seem to be closely followed by the Fed<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Data as of September 2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> Those higher oil prices are leading to rising Q3 earnings estimates for energy stocks<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.20.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Brad:<\/strong> but the relatively small weighting of energy stocks means a muted impact on estimates for the S&P as a whole<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Strategas as of 09.20.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

JD:<\/strong> Regular reminder that stocks and bonds often zig and zag together, especially in higher rate environments<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Verdad as of 09.11.2023<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2309-25.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn\u2019t moved, but a few members have moved their targets higher Source: Bloomberg as of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[84,53,94,57,179,145,178],"class_list":["post-234527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-bonds","tag-cpi","tag-energy","tag-fed","tag-markets","tag-recession","tag-yields"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn\u2019t moved, but a few members have moved their targets higher Source: Bloomberg as of […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Upside-to-Normal-Fed-Funds-Bberg-09.21-JL-.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Aptus PM Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Aptus PM Team\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Aptus PM Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2\"},\"headline\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 22\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\"},\"wordCount\":593,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"bonds\",\"CPI\",\"energy\",\"Fed\",\"markets\",\"recession\",\"yields\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\",\"Charts\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\",\"name\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Market in Pictures, September 22\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\",\"name\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"description\":\"Portfolio Management for Wealth Managers\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png\",\"width\":674,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Aptus Capital Advisors\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2\",\"name\":\"Aptus PM Team\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Aptus PM Team\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/author\/aptus-pm-team\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors","og_description":"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn\u2019t moved, but a few members have moved their targets higher Source: Bloomberg as of […]","og_url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/","og_site_name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","article_published_time":"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Upside-to-Normal-Fed-Funds-Bberg-09.21-JL-.png"}],"author":"Aptus PM Team","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Aptus PM Team","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/"},"author":{"name":"Aptus PM Team","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2"},"headline":"The Market in Pictures, September 22","datePublished":"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00","dateModified":"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/"},"wordCount":593,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["bonds","CPI","energy","Fed","markets","recession","yields"],"articleSection":["Blog","Charts"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/","name":"The Market in Pictures, September 22 - Aptus Capital Advisors","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-09-22T15:42:51+00:00","dateModified":"2023-09-22T20:09:43+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-september-22\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Market in Pictures, September 22"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/","name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","description":"Portfolio Management for Wealth Managers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization","name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/logo@2x-1.png","width":674,"height":200,"caption":"Aptus Capital Advisors"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2","name":"Aptus PM Team","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20ec7920e91ee6bd3bb62c5be1a1313b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Aptus PM Team"},"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/author\/aptus-pm-team\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234527\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}