{"id":234482,"date":"2023-09-13T10:02:59","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T14:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=234482"},"modified":"2023-09-15T10:04:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T14:04:53","slug":"rate-hikes-working-no-cuts-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/rate-hikes-working-no-cuts-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate Hikes Working, No Cuts Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotter pace than the prior two months.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Headline CPI: +0.6% (Consensus Expectations: +0.6%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Core CPI: +0.3% (Consensus Expectations: +0.2%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Headline CPI: +3.7% YoY<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Core CPI: +4.3% YoY<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Details:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Energy category rose 5.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Energy commodities rose 10.5%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Airline fares rose 4.9%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Auto Insurance +2.4% and repair +1.1%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 500;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Owners Equivalent Rent (OER) +0.38%, below consensus expectations\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Super-Core Inflation Problematically High<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Super-core Inflation looks at core services prices excluding housing. This metric became a focus for Fed policymakers, where the idea of stripping out housing was to account for lagged weakness coming down the pike. Super-core rose 0.37% in August. The most since March.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-234483 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Supercore-CPI_Bloomberg-9.13.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1050\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Supercore-CPI_Bloomberg-9.13.23-980x342.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Supercore-CPI_Bloomberg-9.13.23-480x168.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1050px, 100vw\" \/><em><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Bloomberg as of 09.13.2023<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">We wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if Powell drops his focus on this so-called &#8220;super-core.&#8221; Convenient, of course, now that the core rate is running lower than super-core. Something to watch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Ultimately, the U.S. labor market does not appear to have rolled over enough to remove concerns about wage inflation yet (which matters for services inflation). While the report wasn\u2019t overly great, it\u2019s moving in the right direction. Today\u2019s number likely assures a rate pause in September. There is ~50% chance of a hike at the following meeting in November.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Where Will Core Inflation Settle Out?<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">The blue line in the chart shows year-over-year CPI, which rose by 4.3% in the twelve months through August 2023. For the scenarios below, it\u2019s assumed the Cleveland Fed\u2019s CPI Nowcast of 0.37% month-over-month inflation for September will be correct. The red line shows CPI would be roughly 4.02% by February if inflation continues its post-Covid average. The orange line shows CPI would be 3.00% at the end of February if the month-over-month releases equal pre-pandemic QE-era inflation. Finally, the green line shows CPI would be 2.22% by year-end if the month-over-month releases show 0% inflation between October and February (after using the Cleveland Fed\u2019s<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Nowcast for September).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-234484 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Projecting-season-CPI_Bianco-9.13.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"877\" height=\"658\" \/><em><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Bianco Research as of 09.13.2023<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Fortunately, these numbers will likely continue declining through February under the two more benign scenarios. Would the Fed be happy enough with core inflation running around 3% in February? The market thinks so, pricing in rate cuts in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Will Bonds Hedge Stock Risks?<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">The surge in inflation and fear of future inflation has led bonds to be a poor hedge to risk assets (stocks). The ability for bonds to act as a form of hedge and insurance-like asset is one of the reasons bond yields were so low before the recent stretch of high inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-234485 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Sp-index-vs-bloomberg_Aptus-8.31.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"798\" height=\"463\" \/><em>Source: Aptus Research as of 08.31.2023<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A rising correlation structure between stocks and bonds will likely cause investors to demand more compensation and higher yields to hold bonds.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Appears Central Banks are Rounding Third Base this Hiking Cycle<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Only 24% of central banks globally are raising interest rates, down from 60% this time last year. Across most developed markets, we\u2019ve seen an improvement in the trajectory of inflation, showing effectiveness of rate hikes.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-234486 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Percent-of-G20_Strategas-9.11.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"922\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Percent-of-G20_Strategas-9.11.23.png 922w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Percent-of-G20_Strategas-9.11.23-480x297.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 922px, 100vw\" \/><em><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 09.11.2023<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Before markets get overly giddy, we must remember inflation has historically come in waves. It\u2019s too early to consider rate cuts at this stage and the most likely path is higher for longer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>High Yield Spreads Tight Despite Bankruptcies Ticking Higher<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">High-yield spreads continue to price in a tranquil future as spreads remain historically low. We continue to monitor the space as a sentiment gauge on the fear level within the market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-234487 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/US-bankruptcy-filings_Strategas-9.11.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"875\" height=\"536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/US-bankruptcy-filings_Strategas-9.11.23.png 875w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/US-bankruptcy-filings_Strategas-9.11.23-480x294.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 875px, 100vw\" \/><em><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Source: Strategas as of 09.11.2023<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">As shown in the graphic, the level of high-yield issuance hasn\u2019t increased like we\u2019ve seen in the Investment Grade space. It does appear that a lower supply could keep spreads tighter than they should be. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Corporate Bond Market Has Grown Massively Since GFC<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">As we\u2019ve repeatedly mentioned over the past 6 months, corporates (similarly to households) took advantage of record-low interest rates and went on a borrowing spree over the last decade. For example, the average bond price inside the LQD ETF is $89.73 (with Par being $100). Remember interest rates up, bond prices down.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-234488 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Corp-debt-face-value-outstanding_Strategas-9.11.23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Corp-debt-face-value-outstanding_Strategas-9.11.23.png 793w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Corp-debt-face-value-outstanding_Strategas-9.11.23-480x285.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 793px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Strategas as of 09.11.2023<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">In hindsight, this was prudent financial engineering (to borrow low and long) and either repurchase stock or reinvest for the future. This debt load will be something to watch over time as it either must be paid off (using inflated dollars), or refinanced at higher interest rates. While not concerning now, if rates do stay elevated for longer, companies will have some serious thinking to do.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><i>See past bi-weekly bond updates <\/i><span style=\"color: #1881ea;\"><a style=\"color: #1881ea;\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/category\/blog\/bonds\/\"><i>here.<\/i><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Disclosures<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 500;\">Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2309-20.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotter pace than the prior two months.\u00a0 Headline CPI: +0.6% (Consensus Expectations: +0.6%) Core CPI: +0.3% (Consensus Expectations: +0.2%) Headline CPI: +3.7% YoY Core CPI: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,128],"tags":[84,53,83],"class_list":["post-234482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-bonds","tag-bonds","tag-cpi","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Rate Hikes Working, No Cuts Ahead - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/rate-hikes-working-no-cuts-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rate Hikes Working, No Cuts Ahead - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. 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