{"id":233377,"date":"2023-03-17T18:56:53","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T18:56:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=233377"},"modified":"2023-03-17T18:57:26","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T18:57:26","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-march-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-march-17\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, March 17"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Derek:<\/strong> Hopefully the first and last time we need to share SIVB charts, but in hindsight it stood out<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233378 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/SIVB-Stood-Out-Bberg-03.13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"1299\" \/>Source: Bloomberg as of 03.11.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> and banks can differ quite a bit on the % of deposits falling under FDIC thresholds<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233379 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/FDIC-Proportions-Goldman-03.13-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"752\" height=\"563\" \/>Data as of 03.11.2022<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> The bond market equivalent of the VIX is the MOVE Index, and it\u2019s been rising quickly<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233380 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MOVE-Index-03.16-Bberg-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"398\" \/>Source: Bloomberg as of 03.16.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> as stress works its way into fixed income products that fund endless projects<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233381 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Funding-Stress-Bianco-03.13-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"686\" \/>Source: Bianco Research as of 03.13.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Markets have dramatically moved away from the targets discussed by the Fed in recent weeks<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233382 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Fed-vs.-Market-Bberg-03.15-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"371\" height=\"156\" \/>Source: Bloomberg as of 03.15.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> as seen in the historic moves in short-term rates over the past week<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233383 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Historic-2-Yr-Move-Daily-Shot-03.15-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"522\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Historic-2-Yr-Move-Daily-Shot-03.15-JL.png 522w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Historic-2-Yr-Move-Daily-Shot-03.15-JL-480x397.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 522px, 100vw\" \/>Data as of 03.15.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> and odds of a 25 bps hike at next week\u2019s meeting have been all over the board but seemingly still on<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233384 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Rate-Hike-Chances-FedWatch-03.16-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"869\" height=\"533\" \/>Source: FedWatch as of 03.15.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> While the mythical \u201cNo Landing\u201d appears off the table, this sort of hiking cycle has been more common in hard landings not soft ones<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233385 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Soft-vs.-Hard-Landing-Piper-03.16-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"961\" height=\"525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Soft-vs.-Hard-Landing-Piper-03.16-Brad.png 961w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Soft-vs.-Hard-Landing-Piper-03.16-Brad-480x262.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 961px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Piper as of 03.16.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> at a time when markets are quickly unwinding the massive yield curve inversion<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233386 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Bull-Steepener-03.16-Strategas-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Bull-Steepener-03.16-Strategas-JL.png 1018w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Bull-Steepener-03.16-Strategas-JL-980x656.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Bull-Steepener-03.16-Strategas-JL-480x321.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1018px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> Good historical perspective on where we stand today vs. history, on inflation, yields, valuations, tax rates, and growth<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233387 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Rates-and-Taxes-Strategas-03.13-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"940\" height=\"381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Rates-and-Taxes-Strategas-03.13-Brad.png 940w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Rates-and-Taxes-Strategas-03.13-Brad-480x195.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 940px, 100vw\" \/>Source: Strategas as of 03.13.2023<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2303-20.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; Derek: Hopefully the first and last time we need to share SIVB charts, but in hindsight it stood out &nbsp; Source: Bloomberg as of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[371,297,428,179,426,269],"class_list":["post-233377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-banks","tag-bond-market","tag-deposits","tag-markets","tag-svb","tag-yield"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, March 17 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-march-17\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, March 17 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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