{"id":233124,"date":"2023-02-10T14:34:12","date_gmt":"2023-02-10T14:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=233124"},"modified":"2023-02-10T20:56:49","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T20:56:49","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-february-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-february-10\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, February 10"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Fed Funds expectations are still bouncing around on Fed talk \/ speculation<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-233125 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Fed-Funds-Expectations-Bberg-02.06-JL.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"880\" height=\"677\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Bloomberg as of 02.06.23<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> but what remains consistent is the disconnect b\/w the Fed and market expectations<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233126 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Fed-vs.-Market-Bianco-02.06-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"649\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Bianco as of 02.06.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> Another clear pattern is future earnings estimates falling as earnings season progresses<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233127 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Consensus-Earnings-RJ-02.06-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"507\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of 02.06.23<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> which is leading to a forward earnings crossing negative, a bad omen for equities in recent instances<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233128 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Earnings-Cross-Negative-02.03-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"717\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Earnings-Cross-Negative-02.03-Dave.png 717w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Earnings-Cross-Negative-02.03-Dave-480x254.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 717px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: PSC as of 02.06.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> Optimists take note, take out the FANGMAN stocks and forward earnings are forecasting 7.5% growth this year<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233129 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Broader-Earnings-Positive-PSC-02.06-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Broader-Earnings-Positive-PSC-02.06-Dave.png 760w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Broader-Earnings-Positive-PSC-02.06-Dave-480x306.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 760px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: PGM as of 02.06.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Early 2023 has been really weird, with junk racing FAR ahead of non-junk<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233130 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Trash-to-Treasure-PSC-02.08-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"873\" height=\"506\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: PSC as of 02.08.23<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> and this despite PMIs contracting, which generally leads to quality &gt; junk<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233131 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/PMI-Stocks-Piper-02.08-Joseph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"743\" height=\"519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/PMI-Stocks-Piper-02.08-Joseph.png 743w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/PMI-Stocks-Piper-02.08-Joseph-480x335.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 743px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Piper as of 02.08.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> Bank lending standards have tightened<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233132 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Bank-Lending-Standards-Strategas-02.06-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"679\" height=\"542\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Bank-Lending-Standards-Strategas-02.06-Brad.png 679w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Bank-Lending-Standards-Strategas-02.06-Brad-480x383.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 679px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>John Luke:<\/strong> but this tightening isn\u2019t showing up in extra compensation for buyers of high yield <\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-233133 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/High-Yield-Spreads-Pavilion-02.06-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"717\" height=\"457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/High-Yield-Spreads-Pavilion-02.06-JL.png 717w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/High-Yield-Spreads-Pavilion-02.06-JL-480x306.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 717px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Pavilion as of 02.06.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> Buyers of emerging market indices are back to relying on China for a good chunk of the outcome<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-233134 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/China-Weight-in-EM-Strategas-02.06-Dave.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"957\" height=\"628\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> which should prompt holders to look at just how poorly China has treated investors<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-233135 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/China-Performance-Strategas-02.06-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"608\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/China-Performance-Strategas-02.06-Brad.png 608w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/China-Performance-Strategas-02.06-Brad-480x213.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 608px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JD<\/strong>: Reminder, you eat compounded returns not average returns. And the volatility tax eats into your compounded returns<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-233136 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Volatility-Tax-Moontower-02.05.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"566\" height=\"372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Volatility-Tax-Moontower-02.05.png 368w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Volatility-Tax-Moontower-02.05-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Moontower as of 02.05.2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h5><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2302-16.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; John Luke: Fed Funds expectations are still bouncing around on Fed talk \/ speculation &nbsp; Source: Bloomberg as of 02.06.23 \u00a0 John Luke: but [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[132,57,179,285,168],"class_list":["post-233124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-earnings","tag-fed","tag-markets","tag-returns","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, February 10 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-february-10\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, February 10 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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