{"id":232630,"date":"2022-11-11T19:21:11","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T19:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=232630"},"modified":"2022-11-11T20:15:18","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T20:15:18","slug":"the-market-in-pictures-november-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/","title":{"rendered":"The Market in Pictures, November 11"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JL:<\/strong> stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards compressing valuations<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-232633 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-and-Stock-Prices-Strategas-11.07-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"832\" height=\"495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-and-Stock-Prices-Strategas-11.07-JL.png 832w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-and-Stock-Prices-Strategas-11.07-JL-480x286.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 832px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 11.07.2022<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> and the energy sector continues to be immune from 2023 estimate cuts<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-232632 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-Revisions-by-Sector-GS-11.07-Brad.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"571\" height=\"378\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-Revisions-by-Sector-GS-11.07-Brad.png 571w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-Revisions-by-Sector-GS-11.07-Brad-480x318.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 571px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Joseph:<\/strong> while the companies themselves have been confirming that trend, with much lighter hedges than in recent years<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-232634\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Oil-Hedges-Low-Standard-Chartered-11.04-JS.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Oil-Hedges-Low-Standard-Chartered-11.04-JS.png 481w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Oil-Hedges-Low-Standard-Chartered-11.04-JS-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 481px) 100vw, 481px\" \/><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> while also keeping employee count much more restrained vs. other sectors<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-232635\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Employee-Count-Strategas-11.07-Dave-1024x699.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"478\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 11.07<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JD:<\/strong> speaking of restrained, the cost of hedging against sharp equity selloffs has gone nowhere this year<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-232636\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Put-Buying-Failed-in-2022-Bberg-11.02-Derek.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"975\" height=\"556\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JL:<\/strong> though the good side of lower valuations is higher potential returns in the future<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-232637 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Higher-Expected-Returns-JPM-09.30-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"463\" height=\"437\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Higher-Expected-Returns-JPM-09.30-JL.png 463w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Higher-Expected-Returns-JPM-09.30-JL-300x283.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 463px) 100vw, 463px\" \/><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> everyone is watching employment, but in recent cycles job losses haven\u2019t come until well after the Fed stops hiking<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-232638 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Employment-Lag-Strategas-11.09-Dave-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"868\" height=\"925\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 09.30.2022<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Dave:<\/strong> the NY Fed\u2019s \u201crecession model\u201d is showing increased risk of a recession<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-232639 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Recession-Probability-MS-11.07-Dave-1024x448.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Recession-Probability-MS-11.07-Dave-1024x448.png 1024w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Recession-Probability-MS-11.07-Dave-980x428.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Recession-Probability-MS-11.07-Dave-480x210.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.07.2022<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JL:<\/strong> yet nominal GDP is cruising along<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-232640 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Nominal-GDP-Strong-11.07-JL-1024x653.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Nominal-GDP-Strong-11.07-JL-980x625.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Nominal-GDP-Strong-11.07-JL-480x306.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of 10.15.2022<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>JL:<\/strong> Thursday\u2019s CPI report sent shockwaves through the rates market<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-232641 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Massive-1-day-Bond-Rally-Bberg-11.10-JL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"716\" height=\"373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Massive-1-day-Bond-Rally-Bberg-11.10-JL.png 716w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Massive-1-day-Bond-Rally-Bberg-11.10-JL-480x250.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 716px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Data as of 11.10.2022<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Brad:<\/strong> with future Fed Funds expectations reacting immediately across the board<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-232642 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Fed-Funds-Strategas-11.10-Brad-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"685\" height=\"587\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Fed-Funds-Strategas-11.10-Brad-.png 685w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Fed-Funds-Strategas-11.10-Brad--480x411.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 685px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Source: Strategas as of 11.10.2022<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market\u2019s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&amp;P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors\u2019 sentiments.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The Russell 1000\u00ae Index measures the performance of the large cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000\u00ae Index, representing approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market capitalization and current index membership.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>When a page is marked \u201cAdvisor Use Only\u201d or \u201cFor Institutional Use\u201d, the content is only intended for financial advisors, consultants, or existing and prospective institutional investors of Aptus. These materials have not been written or approved for a retail audience or use in mind and should not be distributed to retail investors. Any distribution to retail investors by a registered investment adviser may violate the new Marketing Rule under the Investment Advisers Act. If you choose to utilize or cite material we recommend the citation, be presented in context, with similar footnotes in the material and appropriate sourcing to Aptus and\/or any other author or source references. This is notwithstanding any considerations or customizations with regards to your operations, based on your own compliance process, and compliance review with the marketing rule effective November 4, 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2211-12.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; JL: stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards compressing valuations &nbsp; Source: Strategas as of 11.07.2022 &nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,194],"tags":[53,348,347,223],"class_list":["post-232630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-charts","tag-cpi","tag-earnings-estimates","tag-gdp","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Market in Pictures, November 11 - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Market in Pictures, November 11 - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. 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A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: &nbsp; JL: stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards compressing valuations &nbsp; Source: Strategas as of 11.07.2022 &nbsp; [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/","og_site_name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","article_published_time":"2022-11-11T19:21:11+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-11-11T20:15:18+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Earnings-and-Stock-Prices-Strategas-11.07-JL.png"}],"author":"Aptus PM Team","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Aptus PM Team","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/"},"author":{"name":"Aptus PM Team","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ad43972730756fb6d6e01e61090f21c2"},"headline":"The Market in Pictures, November 11","datePublished":"2022-11-11T19:21:11+00:00","dateModified":"2022-11-11T20:15:18+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/"},"wordCount":719,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["CPI","earnings estimates","GDP","VIX"],"articleSection":["Blog","Charts"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/the-market-in-pictures-november-11\/","name":"The Market in Pictures, November 11 - 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