{"id":232486,"date":"2022-10-13T18:09:17","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T18:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=232486"},"modified":"2022-10-14T11:14:14","modified_gmt":"2022-10-14T11:14:14","slug":"september-cpi-another-hot-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/","title":{"rendered":"September CPI &#8230; Another Hot One"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another hot print with Core CPI hitting a new cycle high of 6.6% y\/y, numbers summarized here:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CPI m\/m:<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+0.4%<br \/>\n<\/span><\/i><i>CPI y\/y:<\/i> <i>\u00a0 +8.2% <\/i> <i> \u00a0 (vs +8.1% exp)<br \/>\n<\/i><i>Core m\/m:<\/i> <i>+0.6% <\/i> <i> (vs +0.4% exp)<br \/>\n<\/i><i>Core y\/y:<\/i> <i>+6.6% <\/i> <i> (vs +6.5% exp)<\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (vs +0.2% exp)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a positive note, even with the larger-than-expected gain in September, the annual pace of headline inflation did slow from 8.3% to 8.2%. The main differences between Core and \u201cheadline\u201d CPI month over month were driven by Food +0.8% vs Energy -2.1%,\u00a0the third consecutive month of cooling price pressures (we do note prices at the pump have been up in October).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-232487 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Inflation-surprises_Numera-10.13.22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"435\" height=\"497\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Inflation-surprises_Numera-10.13.22.png 458w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Inflation-surprises_Numera-10.13.22-263x300.png 263w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 435px) 100vw, 435px\" \/><\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Numera, as of 10\/13\/22<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Within Core CPI<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strongest subgroups m\/m: Transport Services (+1.9%), Medical Services (+1.0%), Shelter (+0.7%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weakest subgroups m\/m: Used Vehicles (-1.1%), Apparel (-0.3%), Medical Goods (-0.1%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Car insurance came in very strong at (+1.6%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><i>In-focus subgroups:<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rent &#8211; Primary Resi m\/m:<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+0.8% vs +0.7% prior<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Owners Equiv Rent m\/m:<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+0.8% vs +0.7% prior<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Vehicles m\/m:<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+0.7% vs +0.8% prior<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Used Vehicles m\/m:<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.1% vs -0.1% prior<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Quick Recap<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core goods are finally decreasing but <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">core services are accelerating<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. OER and rent both accelerated by 10bp to new highs, which as we know, is one of the largest and most cyclical and persistent categories.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-232488 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Core-goods_Citadel-10.13.22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"895\" height=\"668\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Core-goods_Citadel-10.13.22.png 895w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Core-goods_Citadel-10.13.22-480x358.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 895px, 100vw\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Citadel, as of 10\/13\/22<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Where Do We Go From Here?<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite 300bps of tightening (Fed Funds rate), price pressures \u2013 both on the consumer and producer side \u2013 remain elevated. This is putting extreme pressure on the Fed to use whatever tools necessary to cool inflation. Whether a result of supply-side factors outside of the Fed\u2019s control, or a significant lag in changes to monetary policy, inflation has clearly confounded the Committee\u2019s expectations\u2026we\u2019re not yet seeing a more precipitous decline back down towards the Fed\u2019s 2% target range. On that point, we have a few thoughts on where we could be headed next\u2026 one positive and one negative.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><b>Comps Get Easier From Here<\/b><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-232489 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Month-over-month-cpi_Bianco-10.13.22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"936\" height=\"702\" \/><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Bianco, as of 10\/13\/22<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">September\u2019s CPI release is the last month in which the year-ago m\/m number was unusually low (basically the end of easy comps). We can now circle October as the beginning of a period in which headline inflation numbers could provide some relief for Fed officials. Traders are aware of this and will be watching how fast the y\/y number begins to fall.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-232491 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Projecting-CPI_B-LS-22-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"750\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Projecting-CPI_B-LS-22-1.png 1000w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Projecting-CPI_B-LS-22-1-980x735.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Projecting-CPI_B-LS-22-1-480x360.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1000px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the scenarios above (run by Bianco Research), they assume the Cleveland Fed\u2019s CPI Nowcast of 0.72% m\/m inflation for October will be correct. I\u2019d note that Cleveland Fed has been more accurate than Wall Street but still undershoots actual inflation most months during this inflation cycle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The red line shows CPI would end the year at 8.18% if the m\/m releases equal the average seen since the pandemic began in 2020. The orange line shows CPI would end the year near 7.54% if the m\/m releases equal pre-pandemic QE-era inflation. Finally, the green line shows CPI would end the year at 7.22% if the m\/m releases show 0% inflation for the rest of the year (in my opinion, this seems unlikely).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These estimates are much higher than the consensus on Wall Street. Anyone calling for inflation to fall to somewhere near or below 7% by year-end is actually calling for deflation over the next three months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For comparison, the chart below shows the same scenarios for <strong><em>Core <\/em><\/strong>CPI. The year-end projections for Core CPI have risen a bit based on the last few month\u2019s releases.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-232490 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Projecting-CPI_BLS-22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"934\" height=\"701\" \/>Source: Bianco, as of 10\/13\/22<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If inflation follows the red lines in the projection charts above, we could still be staring at 6+% CPI six months from now. If energy and housing prices start to ease, the orange lines in the projections above might prove more accurate. In that case, Core CPI would be closer to 4.75% come March. A break in inflation would be well received by the market!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>To Conclude<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The markets responded to today\u2019s CPI release by making a 75 basis point hike at the November meeting a virtual lock, and drastically increasing the chance for ANOTHER 75 bps hike come December. Timiraos officially blessed a 75 basis point move shortly after CPI\u2019s release (WSJ article: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/inflation-report-seals-case-for-0-75-point-fed-rate-rise-in-november-11665667815\"><strong>Nick T Blesses 75 for December<\/strong><\/a>). A 75 bps hike in November will mark the<strong> fourth<\/strong> straight 75 basis point hike in a row. December (if it comes) would be the fifth.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps this highlights why Fed officials have been so direct in pushing back on hopes of a pivot. If inflation is still at 4.75% in March, rate cuts would seem highly inappropriate unless financial conditions absolutely force their hand. A longer pause (THIS IS NOT A PIVOT), which is what the Fed Funds market is currently pricing in, could make more sense if these projections play out as hoped (i.e., get to restrictive territory and hold steady).<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><i data-stringify-type=\"italic\">The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2210-18.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another hot print with Core CPI hitting a new cycle high of 6.6% y\/y, numbers summarized here: &nbsp; CPI m\/m: +0.4% CPI y\/y: \u00a0 +8.2% \u00a0 (vs +8.1% exp) Core m\/m: +0.6% (vs +0.4% exp) Core y\/y: +6.6% (vs +6.5% exp) (vs +0.2% exp) &nbsp; On a positive note, even with the larger-than-expected gain in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,128],"tags":[53,83],"class_list":["post-232486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-bonds","tag-cpi","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>September CPI ... 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Another Hot One - Aptus Capital Advisors","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"September CPI ... Another Hot One - Aptus Capital Advisors","og_description":"Another hot print with Core CPI hitting a new cycle high of 6.6% y\/y, numbers summarized here: &nbsp; CPI m\/m: +0.4% CPI y\/y: \u00a0 +8.2% \u00a0 (vs +8.1% exp) Core m\/m: +0.6% (vs +0.4% exp) Core y\/y: +6.6% (vs +6.5% exp) (vs +0.2% exp) &nbsp; On a positive note, even with the larger-than-expected gain in [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/","og_site_name":"Aptus Capital Advisors","article_published_time":"2022-10-13T18:09:17+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-10-14T11:14:14+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Inflation-surprises_Numera-10.13.22.png"}],"author":"John Luke Tyner","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"John Luke Tyner","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/"},"author":{"name":"John Luke Tyner","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#\/schema\/person\/1cb0ec6f779811837ff41a8fafdaeed3"},"headline":"September CPI &#8230; Another Hot One","datePublished":"2022-10-13T18:09:17+00:00","dateModified":"2022-10-14T11:14:14+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/"},"wordCount":1059,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["CPI","inflation"],"articleSection":["Blog","Bonds"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/","url":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/september-cpi-another-hot-one\/","name":"September CPI ... 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