{"id":232386,"date":"2022-09-26T08:41:25","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T08:41:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=232386"},"modified":"2022-11-28T22:35:10","modified_gmt":"2022-11-28T22:35:10","slug":"aptus-musings-volatility-breeds-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/aptus-musings-volatility-breeds-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Aptus Musings: Volatility Breeds Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Many of y\u2019all have heard my D + G spiel regarding the S&amp;P 500\u2019s P\/E compressing from 21.5x (Dec \u201921) to 16x currently, all while the risk premium has actually tightened. In other words, the cheapening of the P\/E simply reflects the reality of higher\u00a0<em>real\u00a0<\/em>interest rates (10 year real from -1.1% in Dec \u201921 to +1.2% currently) \u2013 not a higher risk premium. This places a lot of onus on earnings to continue to insulate the market.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-232387 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PE-relative-to-risk_Jeffries-9.21.22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"775\" height=\"509\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PE-relative-to-risk_Jeffries-9.21.22.png 775w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/PE-relative-to-risk_Jeffries-9.21.22-480x315.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 775px, 100vw\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Any way you slice this market through financial jargon, i.e., risk premium \/ equity risk premium \/ etc., it has been a macro, not fundamental-driven, market. Let\u2019s walk through the gyrations of the market year-to-date. And, let me tell you, there have been a lot of gyrations.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The market has seen\u00a0five (5)\u00a0different rallies of 5% or greater in \u201822<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Even more so, the market has seen\u00a0two (2)\u00a0rallies &gt; 10%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And this data is solely focused on the equity markets, i.e., the S&amp;P 500. When you look at it from an asset allocation perspective, AOR (60\/40 portfolio) just hit its 52-week low! Volatility is everywhere.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve been on the side that these are bear market rallies and not the initiation of a new market \u2013 we\u2019ll see if that continues. Nevertheless, the market has seen multiple gyrations of performance:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>12\/31\/2021 to 3\/14\/2022: -14.61%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>3\/15\/2022 to 3\/29\/2022: +12.70%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>3\/30\/2022 to 6\/17\/2022: -21.57%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>6\/18\/2022 to 8\/16\/2022: +18.93%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>8\/17\/2022 to Today: -12.39%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-232676 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-21-at-3.03.32-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2790\" height=\"1312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-21-at-3.03.32-PM.png 2790w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-21-at-3.03.32-PM-1280x602.png 1280w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-21-at-3.03.32-PM-980x461.png 980w, https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-11-21-at-3.03.32-PM-480x226.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 2790px, 100vw\" \/><em>Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9.26.22<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The market has seen a lot of volatility over the last nine months, basically without any exuberance from the equity\u2019s volatility index \u2013 the VIX. September is a prime example \u2013 the market has gone basically nowhere since 8\/31\/2022, yet we have seen two whiplashing price movements of 5% or greater during the month. Now, dissect this into intra-day volatility over the last year:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-232389 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/SP-down_9.20.22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"451\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Year-to-date, we have almost seen an annual record of daily moves (%) greater than any other year since the early 1950s \u2013 25% of the trading days thus far have had an intra-day swing of &gt; 1%.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line, the market is having a lot of difficulty digesting the daily news flow of interest rate and inflation expectations.<\/p>\n<p>My biggest takeaway from the bear market rallies in \u201822 is that lower interest rates can hide a multitude of sins \u2013 QT \/ Inflation \/ Taxes \/ etc. \u2013 much like what we\u2019ve seen, really, since the beginning of QE back in 2008. Basically, the market can put up with a lot of crap, as long as LT interest rates remain lower. The question moving forward as the Fed continues to increase their expectations of the terminal rate, which increased to 4.4% in<\/p>\n<p>\u201922 and 4.6% in \u201923 as of their last meeting, coupled with a ramp up in QT, is: What happens to the market if it doesn\u2019t go to Reconciliation to resolve all of these \u201csins\u201d? Basically, what if rates are higher for longer?<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>What has this Market Taught Us About AA Positioning? <\/em><\/strong>Look at the gyrations that we have seen YTD in the market. Our brains have been trained to think in \u201cV-Shape\u201d and \u201cLambda-Shaped\u201d market movements. As we transition out of a\u00a0Quantitative Easing\u00a0regime and into a\u00a0Quantitative Tightening\u00a0environment, we believe that these types of market movements will occur much less than what we\u2019ve been accustomed to over the past decade.<\/p>\n<p>This just shows the importance of a dynamic hedging exposure within portfolios instead of a static approach. For a static approach to work, one must correctly sell that position or wait until maturity to capitalize on its benefits, and until then, as long as the hedge is \u201cwinning\u201d, the position can become so large that your holding has essentially become a bear allocation. When you manage with a dynamic approach that follows a structured process, you tilt the odds in your favor to be able to capitalize on market capitulations \u2013 much like the ones we\u2019ve witnessed this year.<\/p>\n<p>An active hedging strategy in volatile time periods allows one to opportunistically reset the goal posts to capture more upside without sacrificing any downside protection. As the market changes, one\u2019s hedging exposure should too, otherwise you open your allocation up to significant risk.<em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, we do not know how the market will digest the most recent Fed meeting, but given the increase in terminal rate, I\u2019m not sure if we will retest or make new lows. What I\u2019m more certain of is that it will be very difficult to make new highs in the interim.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h5><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment &amp; tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index is the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Composite Index and is widely regarded as a single gauge of large cap U.S. equities. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market\u2019s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&amp;P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors\u2019 sentiments.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2209-21.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many of y\u2019all have heard my D + G spiel regarding the S&amp;P 500\u2019s P\/E compressing from 21.5x (Dec \u201921) to 16x currently, all while the risk premium has actually tightened. In other words, the cheapening of the P\/E simply reflects the reality of higher\u00a0real\u00a0interest rates (10 year real from -1.1% in Dec \u201921 to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,130],"tags":[212,63],"class_list":["post-232386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-macro-updates","tag-bear-market","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Aptus Musings: Volatility Breeds Volatility - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/aptus-musings-volatility-breeds-volatility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aptus Musings: Volatility Breeds Volatility - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Many of y\u2019all have heard my D + G spiel regarding the S&amp;P 500\u2019s P\/E compressing from 21.5x (Dec \u201921) to 16x currently, all while the risk premium has actually tightened. 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