{"id":231588,"date":"2022-05-11T13:21:18","date_gmt":"2022-05-11T13:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=231588"},"modified":"2023-04-25T15:31:27","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T15:31:27","slug":"aptus-musings-current-market-gyrations-are-not-normal-but-this-intra-year-drawdown-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/aptus-musings-current-market-gyrations-are-not-normal-but-this-intra-year-drawdown-is\/","title":{"rendered":"Aptus Musings: Current Market Gyrations are Not Normal, But This Intra-Year Drawdown Is"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u2019ll start off by reposting JD\u2019s message from the most recent monthly note \u2013 it\u2019s a must read on how to mentally handle the current volatility – Thinking Well<\/a>. Two Parts today:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Assessing the Market Carnage and Volatility in the Market, and<\/li>\n
  2. Some Firepower to Help with Worried Client Calls<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The Market Has Witnessed Record Volatility Lately:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Investors have been on a roller coaster ride of volatility as markets recalibrated expectations for this Federal Reserve tightening cycle. Last Wednesday, Jerome Powell talked down the potential for a 75-basis point hike within the next few meetings, which sent the market higher in an immediate short-covering relief rally. Yet, the next day, investors reassessed the commitment to consecutive 50 basis point hikes at the next \u2018couple\u2019 meetings and the 10-year bond yield soared almost 20 basis points over two days, well past 3.0% – we currently sit at just below 3.0%.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The increase in the 10-year bond yields have been increases in the real rate\u2014as the 10-year TIPS yield, which had been sharply in negative territory (-1%) at the beginning of the year, went positive at the end of last week. The higher move in real bond rates cascaded into stock valuations, with more expensive and higher duration growth stocks down the most. Increasing discount rates impacts valuations of all stocks \u2013 something we\u2019ve continued to see all year.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    It\u2019s no secret that markets have been gyrating over the last few days, as investor\u2019s attention has been focused on inflation. In our opinion,\u00a0volatility will continue for a while, at least until it becomes clear that we have seen some sort of peak inflation<\/u>\u00a0\u2013 obviously the timing for that is up for debate \u2013 and today\u2019s CPI print likely muddied the water.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    I know that we\u2019ve continued to have volatility this week, but let\u2019s focus on last week\u2019s move as it exemplifies the environment we are in, specifically the truly historic moves in the equity market we witnessed last week. The following data doesn\u2019t even include Monday\u2019s -3% move. Stock prices rose 3% last Wednesday after the market read Powell\u2019s comments at the press conference as very dovish, i.e., \u201cwe are not considering a 75bps hike\u201d, only to drop 3.6% the following day as unexpectedly high unit labor costs rekindled expectations of a hawkish Fed. Only seven other times since 1970 has the S&P 500 swung more over a two-day period \u2013 and this isn\u2019t even taking into consideration the move from Monday.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    As many of you could imagine \u2013 we saw a few of those gyrations during the covid-induced correction. In fact, three of the eight times occurred during that period. Another three periods came during the month following the Lehman collapse in 2008. The final episode was in October 1987 \u2013 basically, we are in rarified air.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Furthermore, US Treasury Yields also moved a bunch \u2013 but from a comparable standpoint, it was much less volatile than equities. For example, the US 10YR Treasury fell 11bps on Wednesday, only to bounce 10bps the next day. Back-and-forth moves like this happen more often.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    But, when you combine these two events, the last few days were an unprecedented event. It was the first time since 1970 that both equities and treasuries rose so much one day and dropped so much the following day. As John Luke has noted multiple times, during inflationary periods stocks and bonds tend to be more correlated.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    THIS TABLE IS WILD:<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Moving forward, as many of y\u2019all have heard us say, we believe that the \u201cFed Put\u201d is gone for the foreseeable future. Last year, the Fed took a bet on estimating where inflation would be \u2013 they were wrong. Both politically and from a trust standpoint, The Fed can no longer do that, thus it\u2019s likely that the Fed will continue to raise rates \u2013 tightening policy \u2013 until its preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE, is closer to their longer-term target. John Luke has said it best \u2013 The Fed\u2019s credibility is dependent on its ability to control the problem that they are partially responsible for creating. As we\u2019ve said for quite some time, in the most immediate term, this will likely continue to affect valuations at the market level. For 2022, the S&P 500 multiple has already declined by almost 4.0x turns \u2013 multiple contraction is 100% to blame for this year\u2019s pull back.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    If there is a continued sell-off in stocks, earnings do seem like the obvious catalyst. As many of you read on a previous musing, many sell-side analysts haven\u2019t lowered EPS estimates \u2013 since the beginning of the year, 2022 EPS expectations have increased by almost 7%. One could wonder if current valuations are already pricing in a less rosy slowing EPS expectation.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The market is in unchartered waters right now \u2013 this is no secret. As mentioned above, and also during our \u201922 Outlook, we believe that volatility is here to stay until the market believes that inflation has peaked. Volatility tends to be associated with downturns, but remember, the market can be volatile to the upside too. Luckily, we are prepared for volatility if it goes in either direction \u2013 both at the fund level, and also at the asset allocation level.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The Failure to Stay Invested:<\/u><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    We understand, given Monday\u2019s market move, that everyone is most likely seeing an increase of inbound calls. We know that we beat a dead drum here, but it\u2019s always a good reminder to go over the importance of staying in the market.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. It Pays to Remain Invested\u00a0<\/u><\/em>– There may be a myriad of reasons for not staying invested, but we believe it is typically an individual\u2019s fear of a large drawdown, or an attempt to time the market. Both can be detrimental to portfolio returns and increase longevity risk within portfolios. To prove this \u2013 just look at the chart below depicting returns if we exclude some of the best days in the market:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Remember to Expand Your Time Horizon\u00a0<\/u><\/em>– No one ever knows that the market is going to do \u2013 especially on a daily basis \u2013 we know that volatility tends to breed more volatility \u2013 whether it\u2019s up or down. In our view, investors also tend to focus too much on the short-term \u201cnoise\u201d in the market. There is usually great deal of variability in the day-to-day, with different economic, geopolitical, and company-specific news constantly moving markets. We believe the best method for loss avoidance is to expand your time horizon. Let\u2019s take another look at the numbers:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        \"\"<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. These Max Intra-Year Drawdowns are Normal\u00a0<\/u><\/em>– The S&P 500 has returned 10% annualized since 1928 with an average intra-year drawdown of -16.3% (we’re at -16.8% this year). There’s no upside without downside, no reward without risk. Maintain the plan.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          \"\"<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Investor behavior is exceedingly difficult to change. We believe the numbers are clear, but these are complex behavioral and financial decisions \u2013 volatility in one\u2019s hard earned assets is emotional \u2013 that\u2019s why JD\u2019s\u00a0Thinking Well\u00a0<\/em>piece is so important.<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/em>This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em><\/p>\n

          The S&P 500\u00ae is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 11.2 trillion indexed or benchmarked to the index, with indexed assets comprising approximately USD 4.6 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.<\/em><\/p>\n

          The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. This includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities and collateralized mortgage-backed securities<\/em><\/p>\n

          The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends.<\/em><\/p>\n

          No representation is being made that any model or model mix will achieve results similar to that shown and there is no assurance that a model that produces attractive hypothetical results on a historical basis will work effectively on a prospective basis.<\/em><\/p>\n

          Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2205-12.<\/em><\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          I\u2019ll start off by reposting JD\u2019s message from the most recent monthly note \u2013 it\u2019s a must read on how to mentally handle the current volatility – Thinking Well. Two Parts today: Assessing the Market Carnage and Volatility in the Market, and Some Firepower to Help with Worried Client Calls   The Market Has Witnessed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,130,129],"tags":[122,63],"class_list":["post-231588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-macro-updates","category-market-updates-blog","tag-market-updates","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"\nAptus Musings: Current Market Gyrations are Not Normal, But This Intra-Year Drawdown Is - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/aptus-musings-current-market-gyrations-are-not-normal-but-this-intra-year-drawdown-is\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aptus Musings: Current Market Gyrations are Not Normal, But This Intra-Year Drawdown Is - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I\u2019ll start off by reposting JD\u2019s message from the most recent monthly note \u2013 it\u2019s a must read on how to mentally handle the current volatility – Thinking Well. 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