{"id":230172,"date":"2021-01-27T13:48:25","date_gmt":"2021-01-27T13:48:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/?p=230172"},"modified":"2023-03-16T19:09:56","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T19:09:56","slug":"greg-odens-everywhere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/greg-odens-everywhere\/","title":{"rendered":"Greg Odens Everywhere"},"content":{"rendered":"

Paying a $39 million salary to LeBron is reasonable.\u00a0 He\u2019s going to bring the team tremendous value. He\u2019ll stuff the stat sheet and fill the stands.\u00a0 Is there risk he\u2019s going to have a down year\u2026sure, but he\u2019s still LeBron.<\/p>\n

It is different than paying Greg Oden $39 million in salary. My return on that $39 mil could be zero.\u00a0 If you\u2019re asking yourself, who the heck is Greg Oden?\u00a0 That\u2019s the point. <\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What is a Stock?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

A stock is simply a claim on future cash flows.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Where does return come from?<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Your investment return while owning the stock is driven by yield, growth, and\/or valuation changing.\u00a0 In simple terms, let\u2019s say you own a stock with a stock price of $10, it pays no dividend, has $1 of earnings, and trades at a 10x multiple of earnings (1 x 10).\u00a0 How could you generate return?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  • Yield<\/strong> = 0% as it pays no dividend.<\/li>\n
  • Growth <\/strong>= The company grows earnings at 25%, so it now earns $1.25 of income. If multiples stay intact (10x), your stock price is now $12.50.\u00a0 This increases your investment return by 25%.<\/li>\n
  • Valuation <\/strong>= Multiples expand. Let\u2019s assume the market values this business at 15x earnings rather than 10x \u2013 investor sentiment and expectations of future growth has gone up. This positive expansion in multiple translates to a stock prices of 15 x 1.25 = $18.75.\u00a0 Rising multiples generate returns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/p>\n

    We want to take our capital, exchange it for claims on the future cash flows of businesses set to compound.\u00a0 We look through a good bit of data to get to a simple place \u2013 a combined yield + growth score that\u2019s double digits.\u00a0 We are aware of valuation, just not dependent on multiples expanding.\u00a0 Reason being, we think multiples are a wash over time.<\/p>\n

    Markets ebb and flow from high valuation to low (impacting total return in a negative way) and then from low valuation to high (this is a great time to own stocks).\u00a0 Where do you think we are today???<\/p>\n

    Our process is consistently simple, looking for what we see as profitable, quality companies, priced reasonably (we don\u2019t want to get in front of crashing multiples), and hopefully positioned for growth.\u00a0 We will not be perfect in all environments, and that\u2019s ok.\u00a0 Perfection is not required when you have the right perspective on time horizon and what a stock really is.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Price Matters\u2026So does Cash flow<\/strong><\/h5>\n

     <\/p>\n

    To state the obvious \u2013 a claim on future cash flows (a stock) derives its value by taking those future cash flows and discounting them to today.\u00a0 This requires assumptions around what those cash flows will be, and an appropriate discount rate.\u00a0 There\u2019s some complexity there, but to simplify, think about it this way:<\/p>\n

    If you know you own a claim to $100 a year from now, what would that claim be worth today?\u00a0 If you could buy that claim at $50 vs $95, your return will obviously be better.\u00a0 The lower price you pay the greater potential for return.\u00a0 This is valuation in a nutshell.\u00a0 The valuation environment can be lucrative to shareholders\u2026or not.\u00a0\u00a0 You can substitute valuation for the word multiple like our example above.<\/p>\n

    The last obvious point is the cash flow itself.\u00a0 With stocks, there\u2019s no guarantee of cash flows. It\u2019s a competitive world.\u00a0 What happens if that $100 you expect to receive in a year turns out to be $75\u2026or worse \u2013 ZERO?<\/p>\n

    It makes sense to think about the price you\u2019re paying for future cash flows and the risk around those cash flows themselves, doesn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    An Introduction<\/strong><\/h5>\n

    \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Before we get further, let us introduce you to an index.\u00a0 An index is simply a basket or group of stocks whose grouping is dependent on a certain criterion.\u00a0 For example, the S&P 500 Index is a grouping of 500-ish stocks based on company size.\u00a0 It is roughly the largest 500 US based companies.<\/p>\n

    Enter stage\u2026 \u2018Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Index\u2019.\u00a0 This can be tracked within Bloomberg under the ticker GSCBNPTC.\u00a0 Here is the description of this basket of stocks:<\/p>\n

    \u201cThe GS Non-Profitable Tech basket consists of non-profitable US listed companies in innovative industries.\u00a0 Tech is defined quite broadly to include new economy companies across GICS industry groupings.\u201d<\/p>\n

    You read that right \u2013 this is a basket of stocks that make ZERO dollars.\u00a0 In fact, they lose dollars.\u00a0 Their businesses are funded with outside capital (equity or debt) and the price of the future claims from this business (their stock price) is purely based on expectations and potential.\u00a0 Some of the companies will end up producing crazy amounts of cash flow, some of them won\u2019t ever produce a dollar.\u00a0 There\u2019s no magic 8 ball, so seems like you should proceed with caution, especially if valuations (multiples) are sky high.<\/p>\n

    Below is a chart from the end of 2015 through the bottom of the COVID chaos in 2020.\u00a0 We compare the Non-Profitable Tech basket to the S&P 500 on price return only.\u00a0 As you\u2019d expect, the S&P does a little better.\u00a0 You would have made just 17% or so by owning the S&P and you would have lost 11% or so in the Non-Profitable tech basket.\u00a0 This was not a great stretch for stocks as we are ending the chart with the cliff that was COVID.\u00a0 The point is that the performance is about like you\u2019d expect.\u00a0 Companies generating sales in a profitable way performed better than those that generate sales in a negative way.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \"\"Source: Bloomberg, 01.14.2021<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Now let\u2019s take a look at what has happened since 3\/18\/2020 \u2013 this is where things get interesting.<\/p>\n

    Before we peek at the chart, think about what has happened \u2013 pandemics, monetary and fiscal stimulus like never before, interest rates at rock bottom prices, etc.<\/p>\n

    The Non-Profitable tech index is up nearly 400% vs the S&P 500 up just 58<\/em><\/strong>%.\u00a0 <\/u><\/em><\/p>\n

    \"\"Source: Bloomberg, 01.14.2021<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Conclusion<\/strong><\/h5>\n

    \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The current market environment is full of risk.\u00a0 There are multiples on future cash flows that are sky high, as evidence by the outperformance you see above.<\/p>\n

    Investors must remember \u2013 where do my returns come from and what risk is associated with those returns?<\/p>\n

    The risk of a market slowdown while owning profitable companies is one thing.\u00a0 The risk that comes with paying a historically extreme multiple on the hope of future cash flows is much different, and beyond our appetite.<\/p>\n

    There are companies embedded in the chart above that may never generate a dollar of profitability.\u00a0 Paying 25x sales or higher (not earnings, sales!<\/em>) for a company that may or may not be with us in the future, much less generate any income, puts capital at undue risk of being destroyed.\u00a0 Not impaired\u2026destroyed.<\/p>\n

    There are Greg Odens everywhere.<\/p>\n

    History has shown that valuation environments like this have usually not ended well. Making tons of money quickly is fun and addicting \u2013 just not sustainable.\u00a0 We\u2019ll stick with our simple y + g framework for sustainable outcomes.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Disclosures<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n

    Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed.<\/em><\/p>\n

    This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    When a page is marked \u201cAdvisor Use Only\u201d or \u201cFor Institutional Use\u201d, the content is only intended for financial advisors, consultants, or existing and prospective institutional investors of Aptus. These materials have not been written or approved for a retail audience or use in mind and should not be distributed to retail investors. Any distribution to retail investors by a registered investment adviser may violate the new Marketing Rule under the Investment Advisers Act. If you choose to utilize or cite material we recommend the citation, be presented in context, with similar footnotes in the material and appropriate sourcing to Aptus and\/or any other author or source references. This is notwithstanding any considerations or customizations with regards to your operations, based on your own compliance process, and compliance review with the marketing rule effective November 4, 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm\u2019s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2211-4.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Paying a $39 million salary to LeBron is reasonable.\u00a0 He\u2019s going to bring the team tremendous value. He\u2019ll stuff the stat sheet and fill the stands.\u00a0 Is there risk he\u2019s going to have a down year\u2026sure, but he\u2019s still LeBron. It is different than paying Greg Oden $39 million in salary. My return on that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-230172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"yoast_head":"\nGreg Odens Everywhere - Aptus Capital Advisors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aptuscapitaladvisors.com\/greg-odens-everywhere\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Greg Odens Everywhere - Aptus Capital Advisors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Paying a $39 million salary to LeBron is reasonable.\u00a0 He\u2019s going to bring the team tremendous value. He\u2019ll stuff the stat sheet and fill the stands.\u00a0 Is there risk he\u2019s going to have a down year\u2026sure, but he\u2019s still LeBron. It is different than paying Greg Oden $39 million in salary. 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